Yuriy Boyko, the
head of the Opposition Bloc party, called for a complete overhaul of Ukrainian
foreign policy in a May 29 statement issued on International Peacekeepers Day.
He directly criticized the Poroshenko administration “for not taking any steps
to arrange direct talks” with representatives of the self-declared Donetsk and
Luhansk People’s Republics, calling for official talks that also involve
Moscow. Arranging UN peacekeepers to arrive in Donbas “is an important step,
but it’s not enough for establish peace in Ukraine,” Boyko said. Additionally,
“the course taken by the current government has led to worsened relations with
all of our neighbors – Poland, Hungary and Belarus,” he said. “Under the
current government, Ukraine has transformed itself from a peacemaker country
into Europe’s sore point.”
Zenon Zawada: The proposal to hold talks directly
with the separatist representatives comes directly out of Putin’s playbook. It
has been vehemently opposed by Ukraine’s pro-Western political forces. With his
statements, Boyko has confirmed that ending the war with Russia will be the
Opposition Bloc’s main theme in the 2019 elections. The slogan “We Need Peace”
has already begun to appear on party billboards throughout Ukraine.
We believe the
strategy will be highly effective in gaining votes, particularly in the
Russophile regions of southeast Ukraine that had been the stronghold of the
Opposition Bloc’s predecessor, the Party of Regions.
To help Ukrainians better decide that they “need peace,” we expect the
Russian military will intensify attacks in Donbas during the election campaign.
While this will only infuriate a large part of the population, a significant
minority – many of whom want their sons to avoid military service – will turn
to the Opposition Bloc to put an end to the bloodshed, regardless of the cost
involved. Moreover, Boyko will serve as an ideal second-round runoff opponent
for President Poroshenko, who would prefer a politician that he is likely to
win against. While Boyko can consolidate the opposing position in parliament,
his calls for peace and direct talks with separatists don’t resonate with the majority
of Ukrainians. At least not at this point.