28 August 2012
Ukrainian political opposition and pro-presidential parties are virtually even, according to a new poll released by the respected Razumkov Center yesterday. The aggregate support for opposition parties was 37.1% vs. 36.3% for pro-presidential forces, which is within the survey’s 2.3% margin of error. The survey continued to show only four parties making it over the 5% barrier needed to enter the new parliament. Ukraine’s parliamentary election is two months away today.
Recent political party support survey
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Party June 2012 August 2012
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Party of Regions (Azarov) 27.6% 28.1%
Fatherland (Tymoshenko)* 25.6% 25.6%
Udar (Klitschko) 9.5% 11.5%
Communists (Symonenko) 7.1% 8.2%
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Total opposition 35.1% 37.1%
Total pro-presidential 34.7% 36.3%
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* Opposition includes Fatherland (Tymoshenko Bloc + Front of Changes) and Udar; Pro-presidential includes the Party of Regions and Communists. The June 2012 survey was conducted May 23-June 1 with 2,042 respondents. Margin of error ±2.3%. The August 2012 survey was conducted August 10-15 with 2,009 respondents. Margin of error ±2.3%.
Source: Razumkov Center
Brad Wells: The latest indicate little change over the summer. As long as the levels on the popular vote portion of the ballot are close, the pro-presidential parties should ultimately be able to form a majority in the next parliament as we believe they will come out ahead on the constiuency portion of the ballot (where 50% of MPs will be determined).