Opposition, pro-presidential parties even in polling

Ukrainian political opposition and pro-presidential parties are virtually even, according to a new poll released by the respected Razumkov Center yesterday. The aggregate support for opposition parties was 37.1% vs. 36.3% for pro-presidential forces, which is within the survey’s 2.3% margin of error. The survey continued to show only four parties making it over the 5% barrier needed to enter the new parliament. Ukraine’s parliamentary election is two months away today.

Recent political party support survey

———————————————-
Party                            June 2012          August 2012
———————————————-
Party of Regions (Azarov)    27.6%        28.1%
Fatherland (Tymoshenko)*  25.6%        25.6%
Udar (Klitschko)                 9.5%          11.5%
Communists (Symonenko)   7.1%          8.2%
———————————————-
Total opposition              35.1%        37.1%
Total pro-presidential      34.7%        36.3%
———————————————-
* Opposition includes Fatherland (Tymoshenko Bloc + Front of Changes) and Udar; Pro-presidential includes the Party of Regions and Communists. The June 2012 survey was conducted May 23-June 1 with 2,042 respondents. Margin of error ±2.3%. The August 2012 survey was conducted August 10-15 with 2,009 respondents. Margin of error ±2.3%.
Source: Razumkov Center

Brad Wells: The latest indicate little change over the summer. As long as the levels on the popular vote portion of the ballot are close, the pro-presidential parties should ultimately be able to form a majority in the next parliament as we believe they will come out ahead on the constiuency portion of the ballot (where 50% of MPs will be determined).