Outlook: Interpipe to report 1Q20 results on June 19

Ukraine’s largest pipe and railway wheel producer
Interpipe (INTHOL) will report its 1Q20 results on June 19, according to the
company’s release dated June 12.

Dmytro Khoroshun: We expect
Interpipe’s 1Q20 EBITDA (before reallocation of steel segment EBITDA) to amount
to about USD 54 mln, an 8% qoq drop. Contributions to 1Q20 EBITDA by segment
are expected to be as follows: negative USD 13 mln from pipes (flat qoq), USD
66 mln from railway products (3% less qoq), and USD 0.4 mln from steel (an 85%
qoq plunge).

Interpipe’s 1Q20 revenue is expected to drop 5% qoq to
USD 247 mln.

Revenue from seamless pipe sales should have fallen
10% qoq to about USD 98 mln in 1Q20, driven by a 7% decrease in sales volumes
to 97 kt and a 4% drop in average sales price to USD 1,010/t.

We estimate revenue from welded pipe sales will
retreat 25% qoq in 1Q20 to USD 10 mln, due to a 25% loss in volume to 15 kt and
a 1% dip in price to USD 678/t.

We calculate Interpipe’s wheel segment revenue will
inch up 2% qoq to USD 131 mln in 1Q20, as a 14% increase in sales volume to 58
kt will more than offset an 11% drop in price to USD 2,255/t.