Over 0.4 mln Ukrainians applied for asylum in Russia since 2014

More than 427,000 Ukrainians applied for asylum in Russia
since January 2014, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for
Refugees, as reported by the Ukrainian News agency on Aug. 8. The figures
confirm reports by the Russian Foreign Ministry that 450,000 Ukrainians applied
for asylum or refugee status in Russia since April 2014. In all, 1.1 million
former Donbas residents are residing in Russia, the Cabinet of Ministers of
Ukraine estimated in March 2016. Another 1.75 million displaced persons from
Crimea and Donbas reside in Ukraine. 

Zenon Zawada: If the Minsk
Accords are ever to be fulfilled (we don’t expect that will happen), an
enormous number of Donbas refugees would return to their native territory that
would be loyal to Russia and Russian-oriented politicians in Ukraine. (More
than 420,000 have applied for asylum or refugee status, which is 1% of
Ukraine’s population, yet it’s not clear how many have gained it.) Therefore,
it works to the advantage of Ukraine’s Euro-integration aspirations to avoid
the fulfillment of the Minsk Accords, the very framework of which we have
viewed as a Western concession to Putin.

Even with such an advantage
however, Putin is not interested in complying with the Minsk Accords, which
indicates he is focused on Ukraine’s total disintegration. We view that as a legitimate
possibility, albeit less than 50/50 odds, with Ukraine’s financial struggles
coming in the next few years. It’s a question of whose economy will first
rupture – Russia’s or Ukraine’s.