PACE approves Ukraine election climate, cites vote-buying concerns

The general environment in Ukraine is appropriate for
holding democratic elections, reported on its website on March 8 a delegation
from the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) led by MP
Angela Smith. At the same time, “there is still room for improvement,” the
statement said after the delegation’s visit on March 6-7. In particular, the
delegation cited “the unprecedentedly large number of presidential candidates
and domestic observers might impede the smooth conduct of polling and raise a
challenge on Election Day.” The delegation heard allegations of “blurring the
lines between presidential and campaign activities,” as well as “intensive
efforts on the part of some candidates to establish vote-buying systems.”

Election campaign workers were distributing leaflets
in villages of the Odesa region offering money in exchange for votes, police
reported in the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskiy district on March 9, citing a report by
the district administration head. The leaflets were distributed in the head’s
name, offering UAH 5,000 per vote, both in the town of Bilhorod-Dnistrovskiy,
as well as surrounding villages. Recall on March 11, Internal Affairs Minister
Arsen Avakov said workers with the Poroshenko re-election campaign
were engaged in vote-buying in the Odesa region, among
others.

Presidential candidate Anatoliy Grytsenko called for
the resignation of Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) Head Vasyl Hrytsak on
March 12, accusing him of deliberately disrupting his campaign speech planned
for March 13 in Mariupol. Grytsenko had to cancel his address after the SBU
announced preventative activities in response to a red-level terrorist threat
for March 13-14 in the portside city, which is about 50 km from the separation
line with occupied Donbas. The law requires that red-level threats, or the most
serious, are announced only after terrorist acts are committed, not in
anticipation, Grytsenko said. Moreover, they are imposed immediately after an
incident, not implemented days later.

Zenon Zawada: There is a risk (about 40% likelihood) that international elections
observers, particularly the OSCE, will not endorse these elections as having
met international standards of being free and fair. That likelihood increased
after Avakov alleged vote-buying by the Poroshenko election campaign on March
11. If that happens, we can expect a chaotic political situation in Ukraine
with potential for mass unrest. In light of this prospect, we expect the OSCE
will lean towards endorsing the elections to avoid the potential chaos, though
U.S. officials have sent a clear message to Poroshenko not to test their patience.