The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE)
Bureau decided on June 29 to draft an urgent resolution enabling Russia’s
return to the assembly’s work, the eurointegration.com.ua news site reported
that day. In particular, the bureau asked the assembly’s procedures committee
to urgently prepare a resolution by October to change the assembly’s rules and
procedures that would enable Russia’s return.
Recall, the Russian delegation has refused to
participate in PACE’s work since 2016 – and pay dues to the Council of Europe
since 2017 – after its activity was restricted by sanctions applied in relation
to Russia’s occupation of Ukrainian territory. Russia refuses to pay dues until
the rules and procedures are amended to forbid sanctions, a proposal that has
been supported by Secretary General Thorbjorn Jagland.
It’s possible that PACE will capitulate to Russia’s
blackmail attempt demanding the removal of sanctions in return for renewing its
dues, said Volodymyr Ariev, the head of Ukraine’s PACE delegation, on Facebook
the same day as the PACE bureau’s decision to draft a resolution. “Everything
will be decided in October at the PACE session,” he wrote. “The lobby will be
enormous. The chances are 50/50 on whether PACE will remain a respected body.”
Should Russia return to PACE’s work in 2019, Ariev said “he doesn’t see the
need to further work in a self-discredited organization.”
Zenon Zawada: PACE is the
key dike that is propping up Western sanctions against Russia. That levee
breaking will cause the floodgates to slowly and gradually open during the next
four years, regardless of whether removing the sanctions is truly justified (as
Jagland has argued). This is one of those decisions that can’t offer a
compromise to satisfy both Russia and Ukraine. So the ultimate decision in
October will have a large impact on Western relations with Russia and Ukraine.
We can’t offer any more certainty than Ariev’s 50/50 expectation.