Party of Regions mulling pre-term parliamentary elections

With opposition MPs promising to extend their blockade of the parliamentary tribune into its second week, majority MPs have begun to raise the possibility of pre-term elections. “We’re against using force to unblock (the tribune),” said Volodymyr Oliynyk of the Party of Regions in a Feb. 11 television interview. “If the blockade will continue baselessly, then we’re for pre-term elections. Let other deputies come, let them not block the parliament’s work, and we’ll demand that the election system is single-winner, single-mandate.” Half of the current parliament was elected in October by single-winner, single-mandate districts, while the other half was elected by closed party lists. The opposition has blocked the tribune since Feb. 5 demanding that MPs commit to voting strictly on an individual basis using touch sensors, instead of allowing other MPs to cast votes on their behalf, in their absence, using cards.

Zenon Zawada: It’s only been little more than two months after the new convocation convened and parliament is deadlocked. This parliament was elected to a five-year term, which leads us to believe that pre-term elections are likely within that time frame. We think they’re being used merely as a threat at the moment, since holding them now would be highly unpopular.

Moreover, holding pre-term elections now would threaten the economy’s stability. As we discussed in our Jan. 28 IMF note and our Feb. 8 Macro note, it’s the current relatively stable political climate that can allow for the Ukrainian government to carry out painful reforms that are being demanded by the IMF, including raising household gas prices and letting the hryvnia devalue. Pre-term elections would prompt the ruling Party of Regions to pursue populist measures, which could undermine not only the iMF deal but also a balanced state budget.

We expect the deadlock to continue for several more days, at maximum a few weeks, until the opposition gets tired and the ruling MPs are able retake control with minimum casualties of violence. But the current tension portends for much more conflict down the road and little room for compromise between the majority and opposition.