Poroshenko asks for new coalition ahead of U.S. trip

Ukraine won’t receive USD 1 bln in U.S. loan guarantees and USD 3 bln in the next IMF tranches if a new coalition government isn’t formed, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko told the MPs of his parliamentary faction during a March 28 meeting. The U.S. will also withhold military support approved by the U.S. Congress, said the president, who will depart to the U.S. for a March 30 working visit. “Help me return from the U.S. with USD 3 bln to accelerate reforms,” he said, as reported by the pravda.com.ua news site, citing anonymous sources. The meeting discussed a March 29 deadline to dismiss Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin, who is out of favor with U.S. officials, and a March 31 deadline to form the new coalition.

The new coalition government will be formed between the Poroshenko Bloc, the People’s Front party led by PM Yatsenyuk and the Fatherland party led by former PM Yulia Tymoshenko, said on March 28 Oleh Liashko, the head of the Radical Party. Liashko said he was in talks to form the new coalition but his faction’s proposals weren’t taken into account. As for the next prime minister, he said his faction won’t vote for Volodymyr Hroisman, the parliamentary speaker who is the current favorite to replace Yatsenyuk. Fatherland’s willingness to form the new coalition was also confirmed by Maksym Burbak, a People’s Front MP.

Zenon Zawada: Yesterday’s speculation focused on Tymoshenko, who has yet to confirm that her faction will join. A top Fatherland MP named five demands for joining the coalition, which we view as unrealistic. We believe that she understands that she would be making a mistake politically by tying her strong poll numbers and standing as the leading pro-Western opposition force (and presidential candidate) to two parties that are on the way to extinction. Her willingness to do this would have to involve some behind-the-scenes cajoling from U.S. diplomats and some kind of rewards. If she agrees to this alliance, her party’s ratings will inevitably suffer while Self-Reliance can overtake her as the leading political force in the next few years.

It wouldn’t be a tragedy for Poroshenko if a coalition wasn’t formed by his March 30 visit. He’s already tested the patience of the West and he has the will to stretch it further. In his view, Western leaders have no choice but to deal with him on his terms, whether they like it or not.