Poroshenko authorizes Joint Forces Operation to replace Anti-Terrorist Operation

Ukrainian President Poroshenko signed a decree on Apr.
30 authorizing the change in format of the military operation in Donbas under
the name Joint Forces Operation from Anti-Terrorist Operation. The goal of the
military operation, which was approved by Ukraine’s National Security and
Defense Council, is to ensure national security and defense and rebuff and
restrain the military aggression of the Russian Federation on the territory of
the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, Poroshenko said, referring to the territory
collectively known as Donbas. “I am confident that this is not simply a change
in format, but new possibilities to defend the Ukrainian territory and its
citizens,” he said. “We are doing everything possible for the land of occupied
Donbas to return under Ukraine’s sovereignty as soon as possible.”

Poroshenko transferred control of the new military
operation to Lt. Gen. Serhiy Nayev, who completed his military studies in
Moscow. As part of his orders, Nayev was instructed to organize and ensure the
use of weapons and armaments controlled by the army, giving Ukrainian soldiers
the right to return fire. “If the enemy resorts to a large-scale offensive, you
above all have the responsibility of ensuring a rebuff to the large-scale armed
aggression of the Russian Federation,” he told Nayev.

The president also stressed that he and Ukrainian
diplomats will do everything in their power to ensure the introduction of UN
peacekeepers, which would strengthen security in the region and create the
necessary conditions to renew life as normal. He warned on the ongoing threat
of Russian-backed saboteurs working on Ukrainian territory, as well as the need
to combat information aggression as part of the hybrid warfare.

Zenon Zawada: The launch
of Joint Forces Operation is the result of years of work that culminated with
parliament approving the Donbas reintegration bill in January. The legislation
enhances the president’s authority in waging the war, including granting the
Joint Chiefs of Staff the ability to establish headquarters in the war zone
with wide authority to direct the Armed Forces. Critics argued that the legislation
gives an undefined number of defense and law enforcement officials
unprecedented and excessive authority that is typically reserved for an
official declaration of war.

Poroshenko’s remarks during the signing ceremony
confirmed that the Ukrainian government is preparing for the looming
possibility of expanded warfare, which we see as the base-case scenario going
forward. Poroshenko also revealed that he sees the UN peacekeeping mission in
Donbas as the best hope for resolving the military conflict, which we agree
with. Unfortunately, we believe the Russians are more interested in controlling
the Ukrainian territory rather than settling for a sovereign Ukrainian state,
which is what a UN peacekeeping would ensure. Therefore, we believe the
Russians are more likely to continue their hybrid warfare rather than seek a
peaceful solution in the next two years.

As a footnote, we believe Poroshenko’s enhanced
military authority will make it more difficult for him to surrender the
presidency to his leading competitor, Yulia Tymoshenko, with whom he has a long
and vicious rivalry. We expect a dirty and intense campaign against Tymoshenko
as he attempts to get re-elected. However, it might be too late for Poroshenko
to affect an outcome – even with his control of administrative resources – as
Tymoshenko has emerged with a comfortable lead in two recent election polls.