Poroshenko Bloc, Fatherland most popular parties in Ukraine

The Petro Poroshenko Bloc and Fatherland party, led by former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, enjoy the most support among the public as the leading political parties, according to a poll released on Oct. 5 by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology. Among those respondents who plan to vote in the local elections on Oct. 25, 19.9% would support the Poroshenko Bloc, which is the main patronage party, and 18.8% would support Fatherland, which draws it support from its campaign against utility hikes, opposition to Donbas special status and Tymoshenko’s persona.

The Self-Reliance party, which positions itself as a youthful, reform-oriented force, would draw 12.8%. The Russian-oriented Opposition Bloc would gain 11.0%, the populist Radical Party would earn 7.4% and the paramilitary, nationalist Praviy Sektor would secure 6.5% of the vote. The poll was conducted among 2,041 respondents between Sept. 17 and 27.

Zenon Zawada: These figures are helpful to understand the Ukrainian political landscape, but they aren’t necessarily reflective of how parties will perform in the Oct. 25 local elections, which are more focused on individual candidates. Fatherland, for example, has a weaker party organization as compared to previous years, as well as fewer formidable candidates (many of whom are with the Poroshenko Bloc) and lack of access to government resources. Nonetheless, Tymoshenko has proven to be an extremely resilient politician and will be influential in 2016.

Another factor not accounted for is alleged government obstacles to the Opposition Bloc, which won’t be on the ballot in certain regions and has already lost powerful candidates in some southeastern strongholds. Most notably, Kharkiv Mayor Hennadiy Kernes – likely to be re-elected – launched a party called Rebirth to be able to compete after the Opposition Bloc faced court delays in registering. Even if it succeeds to get on the ballot in various regions, particularly the Kharkiv region, it stands to lose its votes owing to its “displaced candidates.”

The poll also doesn’t take into account regional nuances, such as the unusual popularity of the Ukrop party in Dnipropetrovsk, Ukraine’s fourth-largest city, which has been led by the political team of magnate Igor Kolomoisky.

As for Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenuk, the leader of the People’s Front party, he’s already agreed to field his candidates with the Poroshenko Bloc in the local elections, indicating that he understands that the political capital of his party has all but expired. The People’s Front will likely drift into the ash heap of history in the next year or two, but Yatsenyuk will remain an active political player.