26 November 2015
15 MPs from the Petro Poroshenko Bloc parliamentary faction announced at a Nov. 25 press briefing that they are forming a parliamentary group dedicated to fighting corruption. These MPs have fought corruption battles on their own, only to be targeted with persecution from state officials, rather than drawing their interest, said MP Mustafa Nayyem. “We decided to unite our efforts and further act programmatically in order for this information to reach its target,” he said. “We will begin with our parliamentary faction and then we will speak about the executive branch. We will release all our information in our reports.” Among the group’s MPs are journalist Serhiy Leshchenko and Olha Bohomolets, a medical doctor.
At a Nov. 23 meeting, a group of MPs accused part of the leadership of the Poroshenko Bloc faction of corruption and organizing smear campaigns, reported the pravda.com.ua news site, citing several anonymous MPs. MP Viktor Chumak accused the deputy faction heads of launching a smear campaign against him to prevent him from becoming a member of the National Anti-Corruption Agency. “This isn’t solidarity, but a closed circle. It’s not a faction, but a mafia clan,” Chumak said at the meeting, the report said. MP Leshchenko said all the factions decisions are decided by the Presidential Administration, which has conspired with Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk to divide revenue streams. Poroshenko gained Ukreximbank and Centrenergo, while Yatsenyuk gained Oschadbank and the titanium industry, he alleged.
Zenon Zawada: The efforts of the MPs are admirable but not capable of changing the political situation much at this point. Instead, the conflicts are merely escalating in the Ukrainian government, which only makes Western officials even more frustrated with Kyiv. Meanwhile, the Russian-backed separatists have renewed sporadic attacks with the potential for Moscow to exacerbate them. The Crimean Tatars and Ukrainian nationalists are launching their own campaigns. It’s not clear just how long this kettle can keep simmering without boiling over, though to his credit, Poroshenko has kept the lid on for a year and a half.
We see several boiling points on the horizon. If a visa-free regime is achieved in 2016, that will relieve much pressure off Poroshenko as thousands of Ukrainians – most of them educated – will pursue work opportunities in the European Union. Another way to keep this fragile political situation from erupting will be avoiding elections in Donbas based on the Morel plan conditions and avoiding the establishment of the Donbas special status, both of which are being demanded by the Europeans. The approval of both has the potential to ignite mass protests. Should things boil over, parliamentary and/or presidential elections will need to be held. Despite widespread fears of such a scenario, we don’t see the need to hold elections as something Putin can exploit. Ukraine is on a firm pro-Western path.