Poroshenko launches presidential re-election bid

The political team of Petro Poroshenko organized a Kyiv
forum on Jan. 29 to nominate him as candidate for re-election as Ukrainian
president. In his address, Poroshenko said he would secure by a NATO Membership
Action Plan and submit the application for EU membership in 2024, what would be
the last year of his second term. He called for a “cold peace” with Russia in
which Ukraine’s sovereignty and right to pursue Euro-Atlantic integration is
respected. He focused on his successes in rebuilding the military, securing
state support for Ukrainian culture and establishing a canonical Orthodox
Church of Ukraine.

Among those expressing their support for Poroshenko’s
re-election were Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman (who had distanced himself
politically from the president), Parliamentary Speaker Andriy Parubiy, National
Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksandr Turchynov and Kyiv Mayor
Vitaliy Klychko, who video-recorded his endorsement from an Austrian hospital.
While Parubiy and Turchynov are members of the People’s Front party, noticeably
absent from the forum were People’s Front Party Head Arseniy Yatsenyuk and
Interior Minister Arsen Avakov, who is widely speculated (but not confirmed) to
be supporting Yulia Tymoshenko for president.

Zenon Zawada: Unlike
Tymoshenko, Poroshenko offered no new dramatic proposals, instead focusing on
the message that he’s the best source of stability and resistance to Russian
aggression. This has been his campaign’s consistent strategic, avoid his
weakness of economic issues (which Tymoshenko is focusing on).

A Poroshenko victory will depend on his base of
supporters in the central and western regions offering a strong turnout on
election day, as well as effective use of state resources to “massage” the
result in his favor. It will help Poroshenko immensely if the results are
approved by leading international election observing organizations, such as the
OSCE and ENEMO. So any election manipulations need to be just enough to avoid
alarm and criticism, which we believe the president is capable of doing.

The People’s Front party, which formed the coalition
government with the Poroshenko Bloc in 2014, is split in its support for
Poroshenko. The party will cease to exist after this year, with its leaders
joining other forces. In the meantime, its most important player Avakov, who
controls the nation’s police force and National Guard, will be a neutral player
in the elections, at minimum. We don’t see enough proof that he supports
Tymoshenko outright.