Poroshenko, Tymoshenko campaigns accuse each other of vote-buying

The election campaigns of Petro Poroshenko and Yulia
Tymoshenko accused each other of organizing large-scale vote-buying schemes in
statements released on Feb. 4. That morning, Tymoshenko told a parliamentary
committee that the Poroshenko campaign is buying votes at UAH 1,000 a piece
(USD 36) as part of a nationwide scheme led by Serhiy Bondarenko, an MP and
trusted confidante of the president. “I know that the internal affairs minister
and his team see that payments of UAH 1,000 are massively being distributed in
the country currently,” she said, according to a statement released by the
party.

That evening, Artur Herasymov, the parliamentary
faction head of the Poroshenko Bloc, said in a party statement that “there are
many signals” from almost all of Ukraine’s regions that the Fatherland party,
led by Tymoshenko, has begun a campaign of “buying votes and collecting their
personal data.” Addressing her campaign staffers, he said “similar initiatives
by their leader” have landed them in jail, citing a Fatherland activist in the
Odesa region who was sentenced to five-and-a-half years in prison for
vote-buying.

The accusations by these campaigns came after a
related statement made on Feb. 2 by Interior Minister Arsen Avakov, in which he
said a system of large-scale vote-buying is being attempted in the presidential
vote. “We are carefully following this situation,” he said. “If this enters the
phase of committing crimes, then the police will interfere obligatorily,” he
said, as reported on the ministry’s website. At the moment, nine criminal cases
have been filed on election campaign violations, including illegal financing
and attacks on candidates.

Zenon Zawada: With his
statement, we believe that Avakov was referring to the Poroshenko campaign,
which is in the best shape logistically and financially to carry out such a
scheme. Vote-buying can also be effectively accomplished through “adminresurs,”
a term referring to the abuse of state resources that the Poroshenko is most
capable of doing. It’s also worth considering that Avakov made another
statement that day criticizing the early dismissal of public broadcasting head
Zurab Alasania, widely believed to be politically motivated at the president’s
request. Of course, Avakov could have had the president’s rivals in mind,
including Tymoshenko.

Vote-buying is entirely realistic for the Poroshenko
campaign considering how desperate he is to remain in office to avoid
retribution from his rivals. At the same time, it’s critical for Poroshenko
that any vote manipulations be tempered enough so as not to draw the criticism
of international election observers. He needs Western authorities to endorse
the election results once his victory is declared. In our view, Poroshenko
won’t be able to convince the public of a legitimate victory without the
endorsement of Western authorities.

As for Avakov, it’s possible that he is
establishing himself as a neutral arbiter in this presidential campaign,
boosting his political capital among the public. Or it’s possible that he has a
tacit alliance with Tymoshenko, though we are not convinced of that. All these
questions will be answered during the establishment of voting results.