Poroshenko will not cling to the presidency, adviser says

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko will not attempt
to manipulate the vote in the second-round runoff or drag out the establishing
of results in the courts, the pravda.com.ua news site reported on Apr. 10,
citing “a close adviser” to the president. “For sure, he won’t be clinging to
the position until the very end,” the adviser said. “It’s important for
Poroshenko to remain as Poroshenko.” The second-round runoff vote is scheduled
for Apr. 21.

Zenon Zawada: It’s a
relief to the Ukrainian public to hear assurances from someone close to the
president that Poroshenko will surrender without a nasty battle (in the event
of his electoral loss), which would otherwise have the potential to severely
destabilize the country.

At the same time, we believe Poroshenko’s political
career has the strong potential to disappear if he concedes defeat, as was the
case with all his predecessors. His second-place finish in the first round vote
is almost exclusively owing to his position as president as polls have demonstrated
that at least half the public won’t vote for him under any conditions.

It’s possible that his political party won’t even
achieve the necessary 5% to qualify for parliament in the October elections.
And without a presence in parliament, Poroshenko becomes vulnerable to attacks
on his business and even criminal prosecution, which Zelenskiy has promised.
Moreover, rival oligarch Igor Kolomoisky could seek revenge.

So in light of the enormous influence that
Poroshenko stands to lose if he concedes defeat, and the high risks that would
emerge for him, we still think it’s possible that he will claim victory and
drag out the establishing of official election results in the courts.