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Poroshenko wins presidential elections in the first round

Poroshenko wins presidential elections in the first round

26 May 2014

Confectionary magnate Petro Poroshenko is the likely winner of the presidential elections as the Central Election Commission (CEC) has tallied 54 percent votes in his favor, with 40 percent of votes counted as of Monday morning. Three exit polls reported that he received between 56 and 57 percent of the vote. The second-place finish belongs to former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, who has earned 13 percent, according to the CEC, and between 12 and 13 percent, according to the exit polls. Upstart Oleh Liashko has shocked the political establishment by finishing third, earning eight percent, according to the CEC, and between eight and nine percent according to the exit polls.

 

The inauguration of the new president may happen as early as June 9 or 10, according to Roman Zvarych, a member of the Poroshenko campaign staff, as reported by Ukrainska Pravda on May 26. Poroshenko is planning to visit the troubled eastern regions of Ukraine first after his inauguration, followed by a visit to Poland. He also said he intends to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

 

The government conducted the presidential elections on May 25 without any significant disruptions beyond the easternmost Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which are largely controlled by pro-Russian terrorists. Overall, voter turnout was 61 percent, the Central Election Commission announced with 168 of 225 election districts reporting. The most active voting occurred in Ukraine’s western oblasts, while the least active were in the Russian-leaning southern regions (excluding the oblasts of Donetsk, 14 percent turnout, and Luhansk, where no results have been established yet).

 

Violence continues to plague the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. In the town of Novoaydarivka near Luhansk, terrorists made an attempt to prevent voting, drawing a response from an anti-terrorist operation (ATO) that killed two attackers and resulted in the arrest of 14, according to Ukraine’s Internal Affairs Minister Arsen Avakov. An Italian journalist and his assistant were killed in Sloviansk, a terrorist-occupied city in the Donetsk Oblast. Terrorists broke the arm of an assistant precinct election commission chair in the Donetsk Oblast. Only eight of 22 districts held votes in the Donetsk Oblast and two of 12 districts in the Luhansk oblast.

 

Heavyweight boozing champion Vitali Klitschko was elected mayor of Kyiv with 57 percent of the vote, compared to 10 percent for runner up Lesia Orobets, a staunchly pro-EU member of parliament, according to the Shuster Live Studio exit poll. Klitschko’s party, the Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform (UDAR), earned 42 percent of votes for the Kyiv City Council. Liashko’s Radical Party finished in a distant second, at 7.9%. 

 

Zenon Zawada: In Russia’s undeclared war on Ukraine, the presidential elections have proven to be a major victory for the Ukrainians. The biggest success is the conducting of elections without any significant incidents of violence or terrorism beyond the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. The interim Ukrainian government deserves credit for limiting the terrorist activity to these regions, having undermined terrorist plots throughout recent weeks and preventing them from being executed. The interim government also deserves credit for holding a major election that is free and fair, which the Yanukovych administration failed to do.

 

Another key success is the ability of Ukrainians to consolidate around a single pro-EU candidate with a wealth of experience and contacts globally. Poroshenko winning the first round with more than 50 percent of the vote eliminates the need for a second-round run-off, which is a major step toward stability. It’s also worth noting that all of the top five candidates have solid pro-EU positions and reject Customs Union membership, which is firm evidence that Ukrainians are committed to integrating with the Western world. Finally, the voter turnout was strong, which puts the results beyond doubt. We expect a positive reaction to the election results from the markets.

 

Nevertheless, the successful election is by no means the end of the undeclared war, which we expect Putin to approach as a war of attrition that will last for many months if not years. Investors should be prepared for more instability in Ukraine, instigated by the Russian government, in the coming weeks.

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