Pro-EU Macron set to win French presidential runoff

Former investment banker and EU supporter Emmanuel Macron enjoys a comfortable lead in polls on the eve of the French presidential election runoff set for May 7. Macron has 59.6 percent support among voters, while anti-EU nationalist candidate Marine Le Pen has 40.4 percent, according to a poll published by the telegraph.co.uk news site on May 4. Le Pen is among Europe’s strongest supporters of Russian President Putin, even recognizing his illegal annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

Zenon Zawada: While U.S. President Trump pulled off an upset, there was in fact much statistical evidence that he had a strong chance of winning, based on data analyzed by elections experts. There is no such statistical evidence to indicate that Le Pen can produce a similar upset. So the European Union will survive this election.

As conventional thinking goes, this is positive news in the short term for Ukraine, which will continue to enjoy the full support of the Western world, particularly after Trump abandoned his policy of seeking compromise with Russia.

However, we see Putin expanding military aggression rather than ending his occupation of Ukrainian lands should the economic sanctions begin to threaten the stability of the Russian government. That has been projected to occur as early as this year. We don’t see Putin returning Crimea and Donbas to Ukrainian control under any peaceful circumstances.