Pro-EU Macron wins French presidential election first round

Pro-EU candidates won three of the top four positions of the first round of the French presidential elections held on April 23. Former investment banker and centrist Emmanuel Macron finished first at 23.9 percent, followed by anti-EU nationalist Marine Le Pen, who earned 21.4 percent (with a 78 percent turnout). Center-right candidate Francois Fillon earned 19.9 percent while far Left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon gained 19.6 percent. 

Zenon Zawada: The second-round runoff, to be held on May 7, will essentially be a referendum on France’s EU membership. While establishment polling indicates a large lead for Macron, we can’t rule out a surprise result for Le Pen. As recent elections have shown, many right-wing voters in the West won’t reveal their sympathies to polling agencies out of concern for violating rules on political correctness.

A Macron victory wouldn’t affect Ukraine since the status quo would be maintained. But a Le Pen victory could mean the end of the European Union. Naturally, her victory would deal a severe blow to Western support for Ukraine given she fully supports Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and presumably any Russian aggression in Ukraine.