Pro-NATO Voice party gaining votes at expense of pro-NATO Poroshenko party

The pro-NATO Voice party, led by intellectual rock
star Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, is gaining support at the expense of the pro-NATO
European Solidarity party, led by former President Poroshenko, according to a
poll released on June 19. Among decided voters, The People’s Servant party
(loyal to President Zelensky) will earn 47.1% support, the Opposition Platform
For Life party (loyal to Russian President Putin) has 11.1%, the neoliberal
Voice party has 8.1% support, the pro-EU, anti-IMF Fatherland party (led by Yulia
Tymoshenko) has 7.3% support and European Solidarity has 5.0% support. The poll
was conducted between June 8 and 12 among 2,000 respondents by the Rating
Sociological Group. President Zelensky called for early parliamentary elections
to be held on July 21, which we believe is likely to occur, despite court
appeals having been filed to overturn the date.

The European Solidarity party will focus on three
themes in the campaign, the pravda.com.ua news site reported on June 18. The
first is the accomplishments of the Poroshenko administration, which are a
visa-free regime with the EU, the law protecting the Ukrainian language, and
the establishment of a canonical Orthodox Church of Ukraine. The second theme
is defending Ukraine from Russian aggression, and the third is continuing
Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration. Campaign ads will avoid attacking
President Zelensky, who enjoys wide public support at the moment, the report
said. The campaign has also hired Israeli political strategist Tal Silberstein,
whose clients include former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, former
U.S. President Bill Clinton and Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu.

Zenon Zawada: We believe
Poroshenko’s European Solidarity party should be able squeeze out enough votes
to surpass the 5% threshold to qualify for parliament, relying on voters 50
years and older in western Ukraine. However, that might not be enough.
Vakarchuk’s Voice party is certain to dominate the pro-NATO electorate under 50
years old, which is concentrated in the cities of Kyiv and Lviv. Indeed, four
of the five parties likely to qualify for parliament have embraced two of the
three themes that European Solidarity will focus on (defending against Russian
aggression, Euro-Atlantic integration). So the competition will be intense.

This is the first poll indicating that Poroshenko’s
party might not qualify for parliament, which would make him the latest
president eliminated from Ukrainian political life (following in the footsteps
of his predecessors Viktor Yanukovych and Viktor Yushchenko). It’s for this
very reason why we shared the view – held among numerous political experts –
that Poroshenko would go to extremes to avoid ceding the presidency.

Fortunately, the transfer of power occurred peacefully
(partly because Zelensky won in a second-round landslide). In this sense,
Poroshenko set an important precedent. It remains to be seen whether he will be
rewarded by Zelensky for the peaceful transfer of power. It’s still possible
that Zelensky will follow up on his campaign statement to prosecute Poroshenko,
and Zelensky’s campaign sponsor, Igor Kolomoisky, will pursue some form of
revenge against the former president.