28 July 2014
If Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko launches a loyal political party to compete in the early parliamentary elections expected in October, it would finish in fifth place, according to a poll conducted of 2,040 respondents between July 16 and 23 by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology. The most popular political force in Ukraine now is the Radical Party of Ukraine, a pro-EU project led by populist Oleh Lyashko, which would earn 22.2 percent of the vote. Of the seven parties that would quality for parliament, all support EU-integration and reject the Eurasian Union.
Zenon Zawada: Poroshenko’s Solidarity party isn’t popular because it has yet to be launched and voters have yet to associate it with the president. However, when the same poll indicated that Solidarity is related to Poroshenko, the party came in second place with 20.3 percent support, compared to 20.5 percent for the Radical Party. We expect the president will produce enough advertising during the campaign for voters to recognize his party (though his name can’t be on the ballots themselves).
Last week’s collapse of the parliamentary coalition indicates that Poroshenko’s alliance with Vitali Klitschko’s Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform is tenuous and he’ll have to field his own party. Solidarity’s success is directly related to progress with the war. We believe the parliamentary elections will give the president incentive to contain the fighting, if not triumphing altogether, by October, which will give him an impressive bloc of support in parliament that will extend beyond his party.
If Poroshenko doesn’t gain a parliamentary faction of at least 20 percent of MPs, we expect he will have a rough presidency. Although all seven parties are pro-EU, the coalition collapse and Yatsenyuk’s emotionally charged resignation showed that they are prone to conflict. However, if current trends continue, we expect Solidarity to maintain its second place position with at least 20 percent.