Pro-Russian force narrowing gap with Zelensky’s party

Ukraine’s Kremlin-aligned political party, the
Opposition Platform For Life, has emerged as the nation’s second-leading force
and is closing the gap with the pro-presidential party, according to the latest
poll released on Jan. 5. About 17.4% of decided voters would cast their ballot
for Opposition Platform, compared to 21.6% for The People’s Servant party.
Another 14.5% would vote for the pro-NATO European Solidarity party, 10.9%
would vote for the anti-IMF Fatherland party, 5.7% would vote for Groysman’s
Ukrainian Strategy, and 5.6% would vote for the anti-IMF Radical Party.

If presidential elections were held now, 26.2% of
decided voters would vote for President Volodymyr Zelensky. Another 16.6% would
vote for the Putin-aligned Yuriy Boyko (Opposition Platform), 13.3% would vote
for the pro-NATO Petro Poroshenko (European Solidarity), and 10.5% would vote
for the anti-IMF Yulia Tymoshenko (Fatherland). The poll was conducted between
Jan. 2 and 4 among 2,500 respondents by the Rating Sociological Group.

Zenon Zawada: Everything
is going as the Kremlin had planned. Extending the war in Donbas, without
agreeing to compromise with Zelensky, is gradually pushing more of the
president’s core supporters towards the party that is fully loyal to the
Kremlin. The millions of Ukrainians who want an end to the war at any cost are
gradually shifting allegiance to the party that can deliver peace (through
capitulation).

With Ukraine’s pro-Russian forces at their highest
popularity since 2013, they are poised to seize power in the event of a
political force majeure. That could come in the form of more destabilizing rulings
by the Constitutional Court (which continues to ignore Zelensky’s orders),
actions to hold early parliamentary elections, or a vote to dismiss the
cabinet. The Kremlin can also ruin Zelensky’s ratings by escalating the war in
Donbas. We see the likelihood of such a trigger event this year at 50/50.