Pro-Russian forces hold out hope for Odesa rebellion

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) arrested on May 31 two terrorists who had plans to conduct an attacks in Odesa, kidnap pro-EU activists and kill a city councilman, reported the targeted politician, Aleksei Goncharenko. The officers raided the terrorists’ apartment and found pistols and homemade explosives.

Nikita Mikhalkov, the director of the Cinematographers Union of Russia and outspoken Putin ally, called on the residents of Odesa to greet Russian soldiers with Russian flags and flowers. In a video-recorded statement released on May 28, he dismissed Odesa’s residents as “banderites” for failing to support the pro-Russian fighters, a reference to Ukrainian World War Two fighters who fought the Red Army. “Russians have serious grounds to doubt you, odesites!,” Mikhalkov said. “That’s why the Russians won’t arrive!” Odesa residents rallied against pro-Russian terrorists on May 2, resulting in the deaths of about 46 in a fire of building where they took shelter.

About a 1,000 supporters of the Donetsk People’s Republic rallied in the main square on May 31, calling for integration with Russia. Pavel Gubarev, the leader of the Luhansk People’s Republic, said Ukraine’s other southeastern oblasts need help in joining the “federal state of Novorossiya.” “They are hoping for us in Odesa, that we will build our country and help them, just as our brothers, the Russians, are helping us,” said Natalia Bilotserkivska, a leader of the Russkiy Blok party.

Zenon Zawada: Pro-Russian forces are disappointed in the failure of the rebellion in Odesa to gain any momentum. They seem to have had high hopes that pro-Russian fervor in Odesa would have paved the way for launching the Novorossiya independence movement openly promoted by Putin. We don’t see the minimal support for separatism or federalism spreading beyond the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, except in the event of extreme and prolonged economic hardship in Ukraine paralleled by Russian economic prosperity. The likelihood for such a scenario is quite low. What’s more likely is a Russian military occupation of eastern Ukraine, yet that’s also doubtful amidst Western economic sanctions.