Pro-Russian forces sharply escalate military assault on Avdiyivka

Pro-Russian forces sharply escalated their military assault on the town of Avdiyivka in the Donetsk region on Jan. 29-30, the site of Europe’s largest coke plant owned by Rinat Akhmetov’s Metinvest (METINV). As a result, a state of emergency has been declared with civilian injuries, and possibly casualties, and plans to consider evacuating up to 9,000 of the town’s residents, state officials said. A large segment of the district’s population of 400,000 residents has lost access to electricity, heat and water supply amid freezing temperatures, the Ukrainian government reported.

More than 1,000 units of ammunition fired on Jan. 30-31, which ruined the local filtration station and cut electricity to the Avdiyivka Coke Plant (AVDK UK), as well as the largest towns. Railroad tracks have also been ruined, including those connecting the coke plant to transport routes.

Three Ukrainian soldiers were killed and 20 injured in fighting on Jan. 30, the Anti-Terrorist Operation press service reported. At least 15 pro-Russian fighters were killed and 24 were injured, the Defense Ministry reported. In a Jan. 31 statement, Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry demanded the Russian government halt this latest military campaign and turned to the international community to intensify political and diplomatic pressure on the Kremlin in order to end the military escalation and avert a humanitarian catastrophe. The latest acts could qualify as war crimes considering the large-scale damage being inflicted on lives and property, without military necessity.

Late night on Jan. 30, Ukrainian President Poroshenko called a meeting of the Trilateral Contact Group to resolve the Donbas conflict in Minsk. The same day, he interrupted a working visit to Germany owing to the emergency that left the town without electricity or water. The president ordered diplomats to inform the UN Security Council and OSCE of the state of emergency.

Zenon Zawada: In escalating their assault, the pro-Russian forces could be motivated by factors beyond Putin’s recent talks with Trump. There are several theories floating about: (1) Putin is dissatisfied with his initial talks with Trump on Saturday and has begun to pressure him, (2) Putin is pressuring Akhmetov (by attacking his plant) in order for him to back Yuriy Boyko as the 2019 presidential candidate, and (3) pro-Russian forces are running low on resources and need to raid more.

Trump critics will argue that his election has made Putin feel more comfortable in resuming or allowing military assaults on Ukrainian territory. It’s not worth expecting any official measures from Trump to pressure Putin to halt this latest assault, given that Trump is committed to cooperating with Russia in waging a military offensive on the Islamic State. He and his diplomatic team are more likely to work with Putin behind the scenes to stop such military aggression.

The development is negative for Metinvest, as the stoppage of its largest coking plant may result in a reduced capacity load of its steel mills.