Pro-Western opposition parties unite to demand Saakashvili return

Mikheil Saakashvili, the former Odesa regional
administration head who led anti-government protests in Kyiv in recent months,
was deported illegally and must be returned to Ukraine for a fair court trial,
according to a Feb. 15 statement signed by at least nine pro-Western political
parties including the most popular Fatherland party led by former political
prisoner Yulia Tymoshenko. “This crime must be investigated. All state
officials who violated the law and their responsibilities should be
prosecuted,” the statement said. “We demand the return of Mikheil Saakashvili
to Ukraine, giving him the ability to defend his rights and dignity in the
Ukrainian courts in accordance with the norms of Ukrainian law and
international law.”

The statement, which also declared that Ukraine “is on
the brink of dictatorship,” called upon support for this position from the
Ukrainian public, as well as the world’s leaders and diplomats. “The practice
of determining guilt not in courts but by public statements from the prosecutor
general, and the practice of evicting opponents from the country must become
part of the Soviet past forever,” the statement said. “We warn that any
attempts at further reprisals against opposition leaders and activists will
receive our consolidated and firm response.” The statement was also endorsed by
the New Forces Movement founded by Saakashvili, the Civic Position led by
former Defense Minister Anatoliy Grytsenko and the Self-Reliance party led by
Lviv Mayor Andriy Sadovyi, which has a parliamentary faction.

Recall, Saakashvili was detained at a Kyiv restaurant
on Feb. 12 by officers of the State Migration Service and immediately placed on
a charter plane that transported him to Warsaw. The Prosecutor General’s Office
claimed not to be aware of the migration service’s plans. Saakashvili vowed to
return to Ukraine legally, rather than breaking through the border, and renew
his Ukrainian citizenship.

Zenon Zawada: The Western
establishment will be disturbed to see this rift within Ukraine’s pro-Western
forces, as well as swelling opposition to President Poroshenko. We think these
Western officials were hoping to overlook Saakashvili’s deportation (not
issuing any official statements so far), but forces within Ukraine won’t let
them. These nine parties may form the pro-Western opposition to President Poroshenko
in the 2019 elections and enjoy 42% support among the public, according to a
poll conducted in December by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.
They will likely unite behind Yulia Tymoshenko’s candidacy in the presidential
elections, slated for March 2019, since she is currently leading Poroshenko in
the polls. Meanwhile, Poroshenko has the support of his own party, the People’s
Front, Vidrodzhennia and Liashko’s Radical Party, which together have the
support of 27% of the public, according to the poll.

The pro-Western opposition is likely to allege vote
fraud if the election is close, or if Poroshenko is declared the winner. These
parties are also fearful that Poroshenko’s current abuse of authority will harm
their prospects of getting a fair result in the parliamentary vote, scheduled
for October. This rift in Ukraine’s pro-Western forces, which will inevitably
widen as the elections draw nearer, merely plays into the hands of the Kremlin.
It will also bring more votes to the Russian-oriented parties, which will
campaign on returning the “stability” that millions of Ukrainians are longing
for.