Putin accuses Poroshenko of organizing Kerch Strait conflict as provocation

Russian President Vladimir Putin accused his Ukrainian
counterpart of organizing a provocation to influence the election campaign when
Ukrainian navy ships attempted to cross the Russian-controlled Kerch Strait on
Nov. 25. “The current president’s ratings are somewhere in fifth place, I
think,” Putin told journalists at a Nov. 28 investment forum, referring to
Petro Poroshenko. “He doesn’t have chances to even enter the second round.
That’s why he needed to do something, escalate the situation and create
overwhelming obstacles for his competitors, above all in the opposition.”
Looking for a pretext to impose martial law, Putin said the president arranged
for the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) to plant two of its officers among
the sailors to direct the provocation. Martial law was not imposed in Ukraine
when war erupted in 2014, Putin also pointed out.

Ukrainian President Poroshenko dismissed Putin’s
accusation of planning a provocation in the Kerch Strait, pointing to the
Russian president’s long history of deceit, including denying the presence of
Russian soldiers in Donbas, as well as denying any role in the Skripal
poisoning. “Today Putin announced that the shooting of Ukrainian ships is a
provocation of the Ukrainian government. Well, just how !?!,” Poroshenko said
on Nov. 28, as reported by the pravda.com.ua news site. “And then one thinks,
‘Hey, wait. When the events happened in Salisbury, did they speak any
differently?’ They also lied. And their slogan for Donbas is ‘They’re not
there’,” the president said, referring to Russian soldiers.

The Kremlin acknowledged on Nov. 28 Ukrainian
President Poroshenko’s attempts to conduct a telephone conversation with Putin
regarding the shooting and detention of Ukrainian sailors, and their boats, in
the Black Sea. However, the conversation did not happen, admitted Yuri Ushakov,
an aide to Russian president. “In preparing for this type of contact, a whole
series of factors is considered, particularly the compatibility of schedules
and an analysis of goals that that or another side is setting ahead of such a
discussion,” he said, as reported by the Interfax news agency.

Zenon Zawada: The big
question in Ukraine is whether Poroshenko did orchestrate a provocation, given
that Ukrainian navy ships crossing the Kerch Strait is not a regular event. It’s
only the second time they attempted it since the opening of the Crimean Bridge
in May. But beyond Ukraine, many Western institutions, particularly the U.S.,
have given Ukraine moral support, regardless of the context.

We believe it’s possible martial law will be extended
beyond the 30 days, especially if another similar attack will occur, which we
believe is inevitable sooner or later (not necessarily in the next month, but
certainly in the next half-year). We also believe that all acts of Russian aggression
against Ukraine benefit Poroshenko’s re-election chances. Not only do they
mobilize his patriotic base, but they also spur the Russian-oriented
electorate, which also works to his advantage given that we believe he could
have a tacit election pact with Yuriy Boyko
(head of the Russian-oriented Opposition Platform).

So we can’t rule out the possibility that Poroshenko
could provoke another such conflict, if not in Ukraine’s seas, then possibly on
the Donbas warfront.