Putin asks his army to divert from Ukraine, calls for a stop to ATO

A three-sentence news item appeared on the Russian president’s website on May 19 headed “Russia calls for immediate stop of violent actions in south-eastern Ukraine.” According to the release, Russia calls for a stop to the punitive operation (possibly meaning the anti-terrorist operation in Donetsk region), violent actions, and a diversion of military forces”. Next, the Russian president “welcomes first contacts between Kyiv and supporters of federalization” (possibly meaning the May 18 round table that was held in Kharkiv). “Besides that” the authors of the release inform readers that the Russian President has ordered the Defense Minister to divert the army from the firing fields of Rostov, Belgorod and Bryansk regions (neighbouring Ukraine), as the army training there has been completed.

Representatives of Ukraine, NATO, and the U.S. gave statements on the same day that they had found no evidence that Russia has diverted its troops from the Ukrainian border. Ukraine’s Secretary of Security and Defense Council ironized that the Russian army lacks discipline – Putin is calling troops to divert for the third time, while they do not listen. Last time, Putin reported that Russian troops left the Ukrainian border on May 7.

The same day, Putin reportedly had phone conversations with the President of Finland and the German Chancellor, where the sides discussed presidential elections in Ukraine planned for May 25 and the process of constitutional reform in Ukraine.

Alexander Paraschiy: With the May 19 release, Russian officials explicitly linked the presence of Russian troops at Ukrainian border to violent actions in eastern regions of Ukraine. So far, the statement does not look encouraging, and not just because the army diversion has not been confirmed. As soon as the Russian army and Ukrainian anti-terrorist operation (ATO) have been linked, Putin can “turn back” Russian troops to the border as soon as the ATO continues. Another explanation of the possible Russian decision to divert forces might be – Putin is hoping that “constitutional reform” in Ukraine, which he was discussing yesterday with his EU colleagues, will ease his task to de-stabilize, or annex eastern regions of Ukraine at some later time.

Also worrying is a message that the Kremlin is linking the presidential elections in Ukraine with constitutional reform in the country.