Putin issues warning against U.S. on eve of Tillerson-Lavrov meeting

Russian President Putin issued his latest military warning against the U.S. government on April 9 in response to its missile strike on a Syrian airfield with a joint statement with the Iranian government. “What American waged an in aggression on Syria is a crossing of red lines,” the statement said “From now on, we will respond with force to any aggressor or any breach of red lines from whoever it is and America knows our ability to respond well.”

The same day, a Voice of America reporter tweeted that the scheduled April 12 meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was no longer on Tillerson’s schedule. The report followed British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson canceling his plans to visit Moscow this week, instead opting “to build coordinated international support for a ceasefire on the ground and an intensified political process” at the April 10 and 11 G7 summit, the independent.co.uk news site reported. The same report said Tillerson would still meet with Lavrov in Moscow.

Zenon Zawada: We are confident that U.S. President Trump ordered the strike with the expectation that it would strengthen the U.S. negotiating position with Moscow, particularly ahead of the April 12 meeting. In response, Putin decided to enhance his position with the joint statement with Iran. We are confident the April 12 meeting will occur with potentially impressive results, despite the latest hysteria that U.S.-Russia relations are ruined.

In the Ukrainian context, we still believe Trump and Tillerson are interested in striking a deal with Putin. Such a deal could consist of some combination of concessions involving both Ukraine and Syria. The April 12 meeting could be a positive breakthrough in U.S.-Russia relations, which may or may not be good for Ukraine, depending on the potential agreements reached. Or in the worst case,  it could lead to more warfare, which would be bad for Ukraine.