Putin reiterates position of not ceding control of border in Donbas

Following the
Normandy Format summit on Dec. 9, Russian President Putin reiterated his
position that he will not agree to ceding control of the Russian-Ukrainian
border ahead of local elections to be arranged in the Donetsk and Luhansk
regions, as is being demanded by Ukrainian President Zelensky. “The Ukrainian
side is always posing the question, ‘Give us the ability to close the border
with armies.’ I can imagine what will then begin. There will be Srebrenica,
that’s all. We saw how President Zelensky conducted discussions with the
nationalists. It’s understood who is stronger there. And what will happen
there? Who will lead these nationalists when they enter these territories
without guarantees for the people?” Putin said he will also demand amnesty for
authorities in the Donetsk and Luhansk republics, a position fiercely opposed
by Ukraine’s pro-Western forces.

Former PM Yulia
Tymoshenko, the head of the Fatherland parliamentary faction, said she is
concerned about the Steinmeier formula and a permanent special status for
Donetsk and Luhansk being included in the communique of the Dec. 9 Normandy
Format summit. “Concern arises that for the first time in the history of the
work of the Normandy Format at the level of the president of Ukraine, the Steinmeier
formula has been legitimized, becoming the foundation for future actions,” she
wrote on her Facebook page on Dec. 10. “Also for the first time, the desire to
grant special status to the occupied territories is set in the official
communique, not on a temporary, but permanent basis. Only having a firm
explanation of these points can the consequences of this round of talks be
forecasted for Ukraine.”

Zenon Zawada: It’s clear at this point that Putin
will not allow Ukraine to retake control of the border until an elected,
autonomous government is firmly in place in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. We
believe these comments about mass slaughters by Ukrainian nationalists to be
petty scare tactics. The true confidence of his Putin’s position lies not only
with the Minsk Accords, but his overall strategy of always having the upperhand
in any conflict that he enters into.

The question is to
what extent Zelensky will compromise on this key issue to end the warfare in
Donbas. Interior Minister Arsen Avakov
made comments
the early morning following the Paris summit indicating that an attempt to
reach compromise on this issue will indeed be made.

As for the Steinmeier formula being in communique, we don’t view it as a
source of concern because its details have yet to be agreed upon. Ultimately,
some order of implementing the measures for holding elections and ensuring
peace will have to be agreed upon. The more troubling issue, which was raised by
Tymoshenko, is some form of permanent local self-governance – which Putin would
like to see as full-fledged autonomy – for Donetsk and Luhansk was documented
for the first time. In this sense, Putin succeeded in using the Normandy Format
talks to make these incremental gains in the framework of a future peace deal.