Putin supports armed OSCE police in Donbas

The various sides in the war in Donbas have been expressing their demands in the press in recent days for the local elections being planned. About 10,000-12,000 armed OSCE police will be necessary to hold the elections, said on Ukrainian television on June 21 Zorian Shkiriak, an advisor to the interior minister. He added that elections can’t be held for the next two to three years. Constitutional amendments to establish de facto autonomy in Donbas and decentralization throughout Ukraine can only be approved after the removal of Russian forces, arms and hardware from Donbas, said on French television on June 21 Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko.

From the Russian side, President Putin said he agrees with Ukraine’s position that the OSCE mission needs to be expanded and its observers must be armed, suggesting rifles. Other steps can be taken to improve security, “but they can’t – claiming that not everything is under control in this sphere – delay without finishing the resolution of key issues of a political character,” he told an audience on June 17, as reported by the tass.ru news site. The next day, Russian Presidential Administration Head Sergei Ivanov told Russian television the Minsk talks have reached a dead end, though he confirmed support for an armed OSCE police force. Any progress in the talks depends not on France or Germany but the U.S., Ivanov said.

Meanwhile, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Victoria Nuland will briefly meet with leaders in Kyiv and then Moscow on June 22 to discuss fulfillment of the Minsk accords, the U.S. State Department reported yesterday. President Putin doesn’t have a meeting planned with Nuland for today, his press secretary said early this morning.

Zenon Zawada: Moscow first claimed to be opposed to an armed OSCE mission but now is in favor, revealing this resistance to be a negotiating tactic. We believe the OSCE mission to be the key factor in making the local elections possible this summer. Of all the sides involved, the West is most interested in holding the elections in order to relieve itself of this geopolitical headache.

We believe Russia is interested in the elections, but not as much. Russia has benefitted from the populist, anti-immigrant wave in the West, which is bringing politicians to office that are more sympathetic to Putin’s concerns. A June 23 vote affirming the Brexit will make Russia even more confident that it can remove sanctions in the EU without having to remove its soldiers from Donbas or surrender control of the border to Ukraine. Indeed a Brexit “leave” vote could totally undermine Western efforts in Donbas.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian government isn’t much interested in the elections but is merely fulfilling its marching orders from the West. It will continue to suffer political problems regardless of whether the Minsk accords succeed.