Putin talks to Macron, Niinistö as Lukashenko talks up Union

Russian president Vladimir Putin talked with his French
and Finnish counterparts on Dec. 14, reuters.com reported. Putin told French
president Emmanuel Macron that he wanted immediate talks aimed at stopping
further NATO expansion eastward. Macron warned Putin about the consequences of
a military push into Ukraine.

Putin’s call with Finnish president Sauli Niinistö
comes after Niinistö talked to U.S. president Joe Biden on Dec. 13 as well as
the announcement by Finland on Dec. 10 that it had signed a deal to purchase 64
F-35 jet fighters. Niinistö emphasized to Putin the need for a diplomatic
solution instead of the buildup of Russian troops, which he found to be a
‘grave concern’, yle.fi reported.

On Dec. 14, Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko
spoke about the unification of Belarus and Russia as an ongoing process not
according to a set timetable, but rather according to developments. In an
interview with Turkey’s TRT, he said that Russia and Belarus would avoid the
mistakes of the EU while relying on their mutual experience under the Soviet Union.
This will be “a stronger, more balanced, and more advanced union,” he stated,
according to tass.com.

James Hydzik: Putin and
Niinistö taking about diplomacy while Lukashenko talks about leaving behind the
mistakes of the Soviet Union directly connects with Ukraine given that
mid-December marks the anniversary of the Battle of Taipale during the
Fino-Soviet Winter War of 1939. The Red Army’s mistakes then apply now –
especially in terms of dealing with a determined defense.

Many analysts have dismissed the likelihood of a wide
assault into Ukraine, and the map released by German media showing a first
stage across Ukraine’s Black Sea coastline, engulfing Mariupol and eventually
Odesa, has been in the spotlight. However, the Kremlin can take steps short of
entering Kyiv-controlled Ukraine that will redraw the military and diplomatic
lines, and, in Kyiv at least, create havoc.

The Institute for the Study of War released an
assessment on Dec. 14 of Russian moves and possibilities in regard to military
moves along its western borders. The assessment’s authors point to the fact
that there is much that Putin can do to destabilize the situation without
risking any lives or sanctions. First of all, the permanent transfer of Russian
troops at scale into Belarus, as part of Lukashenko’s “Union 2.0” will add
significant pressure on NATO and Ukraine and can be termed an internal
movement.

Second, formally bringing large numbers of Russian
troops into the part of Donbas not under Kyiv’s control will be devastating for
the Zelensky government, and will not put Russian soldiers in danger. The
likelihood of western governments taking a hard stance over territory that is
already occupied is low compared to a new operation; it might split foreign
governments into factions regarding the response.

Unless the Zelensky government finds a way to
convince the hawks among its populace that it’s important that not one further
centimeter of Kyiv-controlled Ukraine has been lost due to the action, the
reaction from hardliners will be vociferous. The ensuing turmoil may give the
Kremlin the upper hand for the short term.