13 October 2014
Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered Defense Minister Sergei Shoygu to return armies that were training in the Rostov oblast to their permanent bases during an Oct. 11 meeting of the permanent members of the Russian Security Council. The transfer involves 17,600 soldiers that trained during the summer in the Rostov oblast, bordering the Donetsk region. The next day, the Interfax news agency confirmed that military units began returning to their bases. The soldiers successfully conducted their training, which involved practicing marches, setting up camps, and conducting exercises in tactical, technical, medical and arms preparation, the Russian Defense Ministry reported.
Putin has concluded his Novorossiya project, not having achieved any of his goals, Russian opposition leader Boris Nemtsov wrote on his Facebook page on Oct. 12 in response to Putin’s decision to transfer the military units. The results are horrible for Putin, he wrote. Instead of Ukraine entering the Customs Union, it’s going in the opposite direction. Instead of respect from the Ukrainian people, he earned an enemy for many years. Instead of gaining Novorossiya from Donetsk to Odesa, he gained a chunk of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Instead of a corridor from Crimea through Mariupol, he got resistance and trenches dug by Russians in Mariupol. Instead of a conquest with a singelcasualty, he got 4,000 killed on either side. More than USD 100 bln fled the Russian economy and the Russian ruble fell 20 percent, Nemtsov reported. “He wanted to remain recognized in global polticis, and became an outcast,” he said.
Zenon Zawada: It’s looking as though Putin has shelved any plans he had for a military invasion and occupation of Ukraine’s southeastern regions. Just as revealing as the transfer of military units is the fact that the current fighting has been largely limited to the border of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republic.
We agree with Nemtsov that the Russian government’s invasion of Ukraine has been ruinous for both countries, but don’t share his optimism that the order to transfer military units is a sign of surrender. Putin has demonstrated he can launch military invasions rather quickly, without any advanced notice. Moreover, the Novorossiya project is for the long term and the threat of a renewed invasion remains for at least another five years. Instead, we think Putin is merely shifting his war on the Ukrainian stateto the political and economic front.