Putin vows more support for Donbas, refusing prisoner exchanges

Russian President Putin told a Dec. 17 press
conference that his government will grow its support for Donbas, which he continues
to deny as being occupied by his own forces. This includes support in the form
of industry, resolving social issues and infrastructure. “Not along
humanitarian lines, but direct cooperation,” he said. Meanwhile, resolving the
armed conflict in Donbas depends on the Ukrainian politicians, Putin said.
“When they come to government, they lean on the majority of the public, voters.
But when they get to power, they begin to waver a bit and constantly look to
the extreme nationalist forces. Political courage is lacking, it seems to me.
And the process dies out. About the same is happening now, he said.

Putin recognized the successes of the Normandy Four
talks in Paris last year, namely the end of military actions and the exchange
of prisoners. At the same time, “nothing has been unblocked from the viewpoint
of the economy and the social sphere. Nothing in essence has been done with a
political resolution,” he said. The Ukrainian side is demanding a revision of
the Minsk Accords, but “it won’t be able to review anything unilaterally,” he
said.

The Russian government is blocking the exchange of war
prisoners, demanding that Ukraine accept a version of a peace plan allegedly
proposed by the representatives of occupied Donbas, as reported by Serhiy
Harmash, a member of the Ukrainian delegation to the Trilateral Contact Group.
Ukraine has submitted four times lists for an all-for-all exchange, consisting
of more than 200 war prisoners, including 11 in serious medical condition.

“Russia has not submitted any lists not once during
the half year I have been in the Trilateral Contact Group. It has blocked these
processes from the start with the demand of canceling the Rada resolution on
local elections. Now it already wants a Rada resolution that allegedly affirms
some kind of peace plan proposed by the separate territories,” Harmash said on
Dec. 17 on the Ukraine 24 television news network. A release of the 11 injured
prisoners is possible this year if the foreign ministers of the Normandy Format
meet and need a positive result, said Harmash, who built his career as a
journalist in Donbas.

The EU Council decided on Dec. 17 to extend for six
months (until July 31) its Ukraine-related economic sanctions against Russia,
its press service reported that day. The ruling was based on an evaluation
submitted to the EU Council on Dec. 10-11 that concluded Russia has not been
fulfilling the Minsk Accords in full. The sanctions apply to Russia’s
financial, energy and defense sectors.

Zenon Zawada: With his
remarks, Putin made the latest indirect acknowledgement that Russia is involved
in the war in Donbas. As Harmash pointed out, it’s not clear what support
Russia can offer if the conflict is strictly a domestic one, as Putin has
alleged from its very start. But the evidence is overwhelming that Russia is
propping up the occupying government. Meanwhile, Putin’s remark about
nationalist forces is really a veiled reference to the repeated need for
Ukrainian governments to draw IMF money, which would dry up if Ukraine should
ever capitulate.

We expect no breakthroughs in 2021 as efforts to
resolve the war in Donbas remain at a dead end, with both sides refusing to
offer concessions to the other. Instead, the pro-Russian forces in Ukraine –
with their television news networks – are pursuing an aggressive campaign for
mobilizing the public for a dismissal of parliament, also floating the idea of
removing Zelensky. We see the rise of a pro-Russian majority in parliament as
the most likely resolution to the conflict (to pressure the presidential
administration to capitulate to Russian demands). But the likelihood of this
scenario is not better than 50%.