Rada imposes limited martial law: ten regions for one month

Ukraine’s parliament voted on Nov. 26 to approve the
president’s decree imposing martial law in response to Russian FSB officers
attacking and detaining Ukrainian sailors this weekend. The legislation,
resubmitted by the president after meeting criticism, restricted the scope of
the initial martial law conditions. Specifically, it limits the period to 30
days starting Nov. 28 instead of 60 days, which could have resulted in the
presidential elections being postponed.

The territory where martial law is active was
restricted to 10 regions (out of 25 total) that either border Russia
(Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk) or are situated on the maritime coastline
(Odesa, Mykolayiv, Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk). Vinnytsia borders the
Russian-controlled region of Transnistria in Moldova. Another key point of
compromise was restrictions on individual freedoms being imposed only in the
event of a direct attack by Russian forces. The revised martial law conditions
drew 276 votes in support, including majorities from the Poroshenko Bloc,
People’s Front, Self-Reliance, Radical Party and Fatherland factions. The
majority of the MPs of the Opposition Bloc voted against martial law, calling
for negotiations with Russia instead.

In a separate vote the same evening, parliament approved
March 31 as the date for presidential elections, drawing 298 MPs in favor. The
president’s critics took credit for preventing the president from being able to
use the Russian attack on Ukrainian sailors to postpone the presidential
elections. They accused him of wanting to avoid the elections because of his
weak poll ratings, in which he has consistently trailed, at a growing margin,
his longtime political rival, Yulia Tymoshenko. The president dismissed these
accusations during his Nov. 26 address to parliament, stressing that he needs
the ability “to not waste a single second to ensure the defense of Ukrainian
land the moment a Russian soldier crosses the Ukrainian border.” He declared
victory in Ukraine’s ability to avoid the Tskhinvali scenario in Georgia in
2008, in which Russia used a single armed conflict to escalate its offensive
and justify an armed invasion and occupation of the country.

As of this morning, 24 Ukrainian sailors remained in
Russian captivity, arriving in the port of Kerch in occupied Crimea yesterday
along with the three captured vessels. The Russian Foreign Ministry recalled
its appointee on Ukrainian affairs in Russia on Nov. 26 after its initial
statements accusing the Ukrainian government of “not only not adhering to legal
norms, but a planned provocation and aggressive actions,” in the words of
spokeswoman Maria Zakharova. Konstantin Kosachev, head of the Russian
Federation Council foreign affairs committee, said the incident was a “shameful
pirate-PR act” intended to launch the president’s re-election campaign.

Zenon Zawada: It will be
worth watching on whether similar physical or firearms attacks repeat
themselves in the Black Sea between Russian and Ukrainian authorities. We
expect that will happen, sooner or later. Such conflicts could easily be used
by Poroshenko to justify extending the martial law, especially now that its
prolongation won’t affect the date of the elections. At the same time, such
small incidents could also be used by Russian President Putin to expand his
military aggression against Ukraine, as with the Tskhinvali battle mentioned by
Poroshenko (sparked by Russian soldiers taking control of a single Roki
Tunnel).

It was important for parliament to confirm to the public,
both in Ukraine and globally, that the elections will be held on March 31,
regardless of external factors. Reaffirming that elections will occur secures
an important level of stability that foreign authorities need in order to trust
the Ukrainian government, and cooperate with its authorities. It also enhances
stability and predictability for foreign investors in Ukraine.