Ruling party to maintain majority in parliament, nationalists in too

Ukraine held a key parliamentary election yesterday. According to exit poll results, the ruling Party of Regions was the top vote-getter on the party list section of the ballot (according to which 225 of the parliament’s 450 seats will be elected) and a total of five parties will make it into parliament, including nationalist party Svoboda.

Ukraine parliamentary election results
—————————————-
                         Official*        Exit poll**
—————————————-
Party of Regions    35.9%          28.1%
Fatherland            21.4%          24.7%               
Udar                    12.8%          15.1%
Svoboda               7.9%           12.3%
Communists         15.1%         11.8%
—————————————-
* As of October 29 at 9:08AM with 36.2% of votes counted.
** Democratic Initiatives Foundation, Kyiv International Institute of Sociology and Razumkov Center. 19,837 respondents at 400 polling stations. Margin of error ±2.5%.
Source: Ukraine Central Election Commission, Democratic Initiatives Foundation

Brad Wells: The results so far look positive for the Party of Regions, which should be able to maintain a majority in parliament with allies in the Communist Party. Though opposition parties (Fatherland, Udar and Svoboda) should come out ahead on the party list section of the ballot, we predict Regions will ultimately win due to its expected strength on the simple majority constituency portion of the ballot. Notably, voter turnout, according to the election commission, was just 58%, which is the lowest level for any national election in Ukraine since independence, suggesting low participation from protest voters. Those voters that remained undecided tended to vote against the ruling party, which is reflected in the surge across the parliamentary barrier for radical nationalist party Svoboda and get more votes than the Communists. A Regions/Communist majority in the next parliament implies little change in the Ukrainian government’s disposition and reform agenda. The two keys now will be the final official tally’s discrepencies from exit polls (which were generally in line with each other), which could indicate a high level of fraud and manipulation, and of course the final results in the constitutencies, which will not be known for several days.