Russia can interfere in Ukraine election in five ways, expert says
21 June 2018
The Russian government can interfere in Ukraine’s 2019
presidential elections scheduled for March 2019 in five scenarios, according to
an essay published by the Atlantic Council on June 18 that was authored by
Mykola Vorobiov, a fellow at Johns Hopkins University. They include: (1)
backing a Russian candidate, (2) heightening military
tensions in Donbas to spread panic and distrust of the Ukrainian government,
(3) cyberattacks and email hacking, (4) organizing a coup of paramilitaries and
nationalists and (5) organizing the latest maidan protest. “These scenarios may
sound far-fetched, but the Kremlin will use all means possible to make Ukraine
a ‘failed state’ and bring it back to Russia’s sphere of influence once and for
all,” Vorobiov wrote.
Zenon Zawada: These
scenarios are not the least bit far-fetched as we have been warning of Russian
President Putin using the war in Donbas to influence the 2019 elections for many months now. We are
confident that Russia will pursue the first three tactics. While we don’t
believe another maidan is possible (with outdoor tents and soup kitchens), we
believe there is a high risk that President Poroshenko will be tempted to
engage in vote fraud to ensure his re-election. Accusations of vote fraud are
already baked into the cake, but it’s still a question of whether these claims
will be limited to press conferences, or manifest themselves in street
protests.
We agree with Vorobiov’s position that Russia needs
a political solution to retake control of Ukraine, given that its military
attempt has failed. And the Russians know full well that the 2019 elections
will be as good a chance as any to bring Ukraine back into its geopolitical
orbit, or to dissolve Ukrainian statehood altogether. This is especially the
case with plummeting living standards and a vacuum of trusted political
leaders. Therefore, we expect the Kremlin will try every tactic at its disposal
to “solve” its “Ukraine problem” in 2019, “once and for all,” as Vorobiov
correctly put it.
