Russia decides to supply electricity to occupied Luhansk

The Russian government has decided to supply electricity to the territory of the Luhansk region controlled by separatists, Boris Gryzlov, a key advisor to Russian President Putin, told the Interfax news agency on April 25. The decision comes after the Ukrainian government announced last week that electricity supplies to the territory would be halted as of April 25 for lack of payment by the biggest enterprises, which were “nationalized” in early March. The decision to cut electricity “stands among a series of other acts that practically separate certain districts of Donbas from Ukraine,” Gryzlov said, referring to it as politically motivated and in violation of the Minsk Accords. Donbas refers to the territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, partially controlled by Russian-backed forces.

The Ukrainian government will renew electricity supplies to occupied Luhansk once the debt is paid by the self-declared government, Energy Minister Ihor Nasalyk told Ukrainian television on April 25. The debts of occupied Donetsk are far smaller than have been accrued in Luhansk, he said.

Zenon Zawada: Kremlin officials are correct in stating that the Ukrainian government’s steps in recent months have dramatically enhanced Russia’s presence in occupied Donbas and pushed the territory out of Ukraine’s influence. The decision to cut electricity is a direct result of the Ukrainian government’s decision to impose a trade blockade on the region, which it was pressured into doing by nationalist activists and veterans who opposed Ukrainian businessmen making money off the fighting.

Despite the well-meaning intentions behind it, the blockade has severely restricted the ability of the Ukrainian government to regain control of the territory. Besides beginning to receive their electricity from Russia, residents of the occupied territories began in February using the Russian ruble as their currency. The same month, Russia began recognizing documents issued by the self-declared republics and efforts are under way in the Russian Duma to make it easier for Donbas residents to become Russian citizens.

In essence, the Russian government is in the process of establishing de facto control of occupied Donbas, which will render the Minsk Accords meaningless. This means that the West will maintain its sanctions on Russia, which will be forced eventually to either capitulate, which we view as highly unlikely, or consider a new military offensive into Ukraine. That offensive can be avoided in 2019, when presidential elections are scheduled. We expect the Kremlin will lend heavy support a pro-Russian candidate, who will offer very lucrative promises of improved economic conditions to the impoverished public.