Russia escalates military presence, rhetoric against Ukraine

The Russian government has sharply escalated the
presence of its military along Ukraine’s border and in occupied Crimea,
President Petro Poroshenko said this morning, citing his information sources.
“All the possibilities that martial law gives government bodies will be used to
strengthen the state border’s defense with Russia, as well as the
administrative boundary with Crimea,” he said, adding that military units are
being relocated to the border and security at critical infrastructure sites is
being bolsetered, among other measures. He said he hopes he won’t have to
extend martial law beyond 30 days.

More than 80,000 Russian Armed Forces soldiers have
been mobilized along Ukraine’s border, in occupied Donbas and in annexed
Crimea, Poroshenko told a Dec. 1 ceremony. In addition, 1,400 artillery and
rocket anti-aircraft systems have been deployed, 900 tanks, 2,300 armored
vehicles, more than 500 plans and 300 helicopters, he said. More than 80
Russian ships and eight submarines are deployed in the Black, Azov and Aegean
seas, he said. “Russia continues to challenge the world on whether it will
allow him to turn the Azov and Black seas into a ‘Russian lake’,” Poroshenko
said. “This is a colossal threat to which we are searching for the appropriate
political-diplomatic response with our allies. But our correct internal
response is strengthening Ukrainian armies, above all by aerial defense,” he
said.

Russia is trying to gain a land corridor between occupied
Donbas and occupied Crimea by capturing the ports of Mariupol and Berdiansk,
Poroshenko said in a Dec. 2 interview with a German news organization. “If
certain politicians don’t stop flirting and dancing with Putin, then no one is
supposed to rule out the threat that the scale of Russian aggression will
grow,” he said. Russia is continuing its campaign of “creeping annexation of
Ukraine” will the clear goal of destroying all state infrastructure, Poroshenko
said in an interview published on Dec. 1 in an Italian newspaper.

Poroshenko’s remarks about possible Russian annexation
came after Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova hinted on Nov.
30 that Russia could annex more Ukrainian territory. In response to a question
on whether Russia will consider relocating its diplomatic offices from Kyiv
where protests have recently occurred, Zakharova told a briefing in Moscow:
“Our recent historical example shows that sometimes a relocation isn’t
necessary. Sometimes it happens that the status of our diplomatic offices
changes. For example, there used to be a general consulate in Simferopol, and
later it became the region’s foreign affairs office.” In response to
Poroshenko’s claim that Russia is seeking to take Mariupol and Berdiansk,
Zakharova said it’s Russia that is protecting Europe from “barbarism, tyranny,
terrorism, aggression, and militarism that have come upon our continent.”

Zenon Zawada: As the
military confrontation has escalated between Russia and Ukraine, so has the war
of words between the two governments. Yet the statements have not only become
increasingly aggressive, but more detached from reality. Zakharova’s veiled
threat of annexing the Ukrainian capital is particularly unhinged from reality,
considering how destructive of human life and expensive an operation that would
be. However, we agree with Poroshenko’s view that aerial defenses are
particularly important since Russia could decide to strike sensitive targets
from the air, particularly military-related sites, in the Kyiv area.

Poroshenko’s claim of Russia seeking a land bridge
between Donbas and Crimea is also unrealistic, merely rehashing such
speculation from 2015, when the prospect was entirely realistic as battles
raged for control of land. While we also view such a land bridge operation as
exceedingly destructive and expensive, it’s entirely realistic to view Russia
as seeking control of the Azov Sea and preventing ships from traveling to
Ukrainian ports, which has already been accomplished to a large extent.

We expect more armed conflicts between Ukraine and
Russia in the coming months. The main issue is to what extent they will occur
and disrupt the lives of Ukrainians and their business. And to what extent will
they affect elections. Russia can’t afford to occupy or annex any more
Ukrainian land, but Russia can realistically be expected to extend its campaign
of destroying Ukrainian infrastructure and economic capabilties, as the
president accurately highlighted in remarks this weekend.