Russia-NATO conflict highest ranked security threat by CFR

A military conflict between the Russian Federation and a NATO member-state was ranked as the seven biggest global security threats in 2017, according to the Preventative Priorities Survey annual report produced by the Council on Foreign Relations on Dec. 14. A deliberate or unintended military confrontation between Russia and NATO members, stemming from assertive Russian behavior in eastern Europe, was ranked with a moderate likelihood and high impact.

Zenon Zawada: Without having access to the report, we are left to presume the term “assertive behavior in eastern Europe” refers to the Baltic states or possibly even Moldova, rather than Ukraine, where actions have been aggressive, to say the least. We don’t see U.S. President-elect Donald Trump allowing Russia to interfere militarily in these countries as it would be embarrassing to his image as a “law and order” leader. Trump has said NATO member-states need to pay their fair share in the organization, but that doesn’t mean he’d allow them to be invaded. 

This report was researched and compiled before ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson emerged as Trump’s nominee for secretary of state. Should he be confirmed, the risk of a Russia/NATO military conflict will diminish significantly. Tillerson is among only a handful of Westerners who has strong relations with Russian President Putin and will have ability, unprecedented for an American, to negotiate with him intimately.