Russia planning to take control of Ukraine in 2019, official says

Russia’s
intelligence services have set the goal of “solving the Ukrainian question” in
2019, said Yegor Bozhok, the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of
Ukraine that reports to the Presidential Administration. The term “close”
refers to “returning Ukraine into the sphere of influence of the Russian
Federation and to do this so well that no ‘color revolutions’ won’t ever occur
again in Ukraine,” he said in an interview with the Ukrinform news agency
published on Jan. 24.

They have three
scenarios to accomplish their goal, Bozhok said, the first being pro-Kremlin
candidates winning the presidential and parliamentary elections. If that fails,
the second scenario involves “domestic destabilization, or so-called
‘controlled chaos,’ to force Ukraine to accept conditions being advanced the by
the Kremlin,” he said. The third scenario is a military operation, he said,
without offering details. “The likelihood is very high of the second or third
scenarios being fulfilled,” he said. “No one knows Putin’s plans besides Putin
himself.” The main goal of his body is to prevent Russia from interfering in
Ukraine’s domestic processes, he said.

Zenon Zawada: These scenarios are well-known to
the highest ranking Ukrainian and American officials, having been mentioned in recent statements by Kurt Volker
and Alexander Vershbow. It’s obvious the first scenario won’t occur as a pro-Western
president and parliament are highly likely to emerge by the year end. So what’s
most revealing by these alarming statements (made by someone who reports
directly to the president) is that the Presidential Administration could be
laying the informational foundation and raising public conscious to expect a
military conflict with Russia, perhaps even ahead of the March elections.

Accusations of vote
fraud by Tymoshenko’s campaign, which are inevitable if Poroshenko is declared
the second-round runoff winner, create the perfect setting for Bozhok’s second
scenario to unfold. We don’t think Tymoshenko has enough support to launch mass
protests that are influential enough to pressure the president. But her refusal
to recognize election results will cause enough chaos to enable pro-Russian
forces to launch Yellow Vest-style riots or even
armed insurgencies in the Russophile southeastern regions.

Poroshenko could use
the election-related chaos to his advantage, postponing the transfer of power
indefinitely until some kind of agreement is reached with Tymoshenko’s forces.
But rather than open that Pandora’s Box, with events spiraling out of the
government’s control, Poroshenko can opt for something similar of the Nov. 25
incident as a convenient means of reintroducing martial law before elections
are held.

Of course, the Russian attacks will likely be more severe this time
around. But Poroshenko will have extended his presidency for an indefinite
period, which would be a source of relief for Western authorities, who are already
expressing the preference that he remain as president, rather than Tymoshenko.