Russia seeks to eliminate Ukrainian statehood, Klimkin says

The Russian government is pursuing the elimination of
Ukrainian statehood, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin told Ukrainian
television on Sept. 3. “I believe – as I’ve told others many times, including
our friends and partners – that truly Russia is attempting not a revanche of
pro-Russian forces in Ukraine,” he said, stressing that a pro-Russian majority
is no longer possible in Ukraine. “What Russia is doing is not merely a
revanche for pro-Russian forces to gain a larger role. All of what’s being done
is aimed at a conscious dismemberment of Ukraine. And if you analyze in detail
Russian steps, and the logic of it, and what they’re saying, that’s what it’s
about. Everyone is supposed to realize this. This is not an attempt to somehow
shift the political balance. This is an attempt to eliminate Ukraine.”

Zenon Zawada: We largely
agree with Klimkin’s assessment. Russia either needs to eliminate the Ukrainian
state, or bring the Ukrainian territory back under its control. The latter can
be achieved with a pro-Russian parliament and president, which is theoretically
doable in the next five years, but only under harshly authoritarian conditions.
It’s not likely.

Meanwhile, the elimination of Ukrainian statehood is a
very costly endeavor, if to accomplish it by military means. Such a military
offensive would likely expand into a continental war, which the Russians are
considering, but only as a last option (we hope).

Dissolving statehood can be most realistically
achieved with the Ukrainians doing it themselves. Such a scenario could involve
the pro-Russian forces gradually accumulating a parliamentary majority after
the 2019 elections. This majority would then begin to gradually undermine and
repeal Euro-Atlantic integration measures, causing Ukraine’s westernmost
regions to revolt. 

This scenario would become realistic with the
fulfillment of the Minsk Accords, which Russian President Putin is currently
considering. Bringing Donbas residents back into the Ukrainian polity would
dramatically shift the balance toward Russia. It’s also possible with
single-mandate districts being preserved for the October 2019 parliamentary
elections. So the current push for exclusively open-list elections would serve
to ensure Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic course.