Russia to seek Donbas special status, trade blockade removal in 2018, Gryzlov says

The Russian government will strive to achieve special
status for Donbas in 2018 based on the Steinmeier formula and amnesty, said on
Dec. 26 Boris Gryzlov, the Russian representative to the Trilateral Contact
Group in Minsk, as reported by the RIA Novosti news agency. It will strive for
a stable withdrawal of forces from the conflict line and upholding the
ceasefire with “harsh disciplinary accountability” for its violators, he said.
In the economic sphere, Russia will strive for the full removal of the economic
and transport blockade imposed by the Ukrainian government, Gryzlov said.

The Steinmeier formula calls for temporary local
self-governance to be established in the occupied territories of the Donetsk
and Luhansk regions on the day of elections. This self-governance will be
extended to its full term once elections are determined to have conformed to
international standards.

Zenon Zawada: It will be
three years in February since the Minsk Two Accords were signed, with little
progress towards resolving the war in Donbas other than the recent exchange of
war prisoners, which was only partial. We continue to believe that so many
disagreements exist regarding the Minsk Accords that finding consensus on all
of them, as well as implementing them, is unlikely. So Gryzlov’s statement
consists of the same Russian talking points of recent years, many of which the
Russians themselves haven’t fulfilled.

It’s also worth considering the nationalists and war
veterans are violently opposed to not only many points of the Minsk Accords,
but also removing the trade blockade. So it’s in the political interests of
Ukrainian President Poroshenko not to stir the passions of the nationalists and
maintain the status quo in Donbas. Meanwhile, we are confident that Russian
President Putin won’t pursue real peace until after the 2019 elections in
Ukraine. We believe he will be more willing to fulfill the Minsk Accords if he
sees that Ukraine’s Russian-oriented parties don’t have much support.