Russia, Ukraine agree to disarm fighters, free captured buildings

The Apr. 17 negotiations in Geneva involving Russia, Ukraine, the U.S. and the EU resulted in a preliminary agreement in which the sides agreed to disarm illegal groups of fighters and free captured buildings, adding that “amnesty will be granted to protesters and to those who have left buildings and other public places and surrendered weapons, with the exception of those found guilty of capital crimes.” The joint diplomatic statement called for both sides to refrain from “violence, intimidation or provocative actions.” The statement condemned “all expressions of extremism, racism and religious intolerance, including anti-Semitism.” It also called for a dialogue to involve representatives of all of Ukraine’s regions.

U.S. President Barack Obama said there was “a glimmer of hope” in the agreement, yet at the same time expressed doubts about it, reported the AFP news agency. “I don’t think we can be sure of anything at this point,” he told reporters at an April 17 press briefing. “I think there is the possibility, the prospect, that the diplomacy may de-escalate the situation.” Obama added that he’s coordinating with EU leaders about further sanctions against top Russian officials if progress wasn’t evident within days. “I think I’ve made it very clear that military options are not on the table in Ukraine, because this is not a situation that would be amenable to a military solution,” Obama said.

Zenon Zawada: The negotiations were a success for the Russian government because with its military invasion of eastern Ukraine, the Crimean question was no longer on the table, making irrelevent Ukrainian concerns for the peninsula. The Russian tactic reflects the classic style of history’s tyrants to raise the stakes in a military conflict in order to consolidate prior illicit gains. The talks were a success for the Ukrainians only in the sense that it marked the first time the Russian foreign minister was willing to sit at the same table with the new Ukrainian foreign minister.

Even as the agreement called to disarm soldiers, Putin demonstrated remarkable cynicism in dismissing as “nonsense” on Russian national television the ample evidence that Russian soldiers and agents are on mainland Ukrainian territory. We don’t believe there’s any glimmer of hope in the agreement, based on Putin’s deceptive and aggressive remarks against Ukraine that he delivered even as the Geneva negotiations were occurring. There might not be any disarming of soldiers or release of state buildings at all, considering that the Russians will want the Ukrainians to clear Kyiv’s Maidan (Independence Square), which remains active.

So in the next few days, we expect Putin to start blaming the Ukrainian government for failing to uphold its end of the April 17 agreement (by not freeing state buildings) and using this pretext (however absurd it may be) to escalate the conflict. Recall, Putin blamed the new Ukrainian government for breaching a Feb. 20 agreement (between the pro-Western opposition and then-President Viktor Yanukovych) that was supposed to hold presidential elections in December, using that to invade and annex Crimea. Yet it was Yanukovych who undermined the pact by fleeing Ukraine. Putin has even blamed the U.S. and U.K. for breaching 1994 Budapest Memorandum that provided security guarantees for Ukraine, even though it was Russia that blatantly violated Ukraine’s security and territorial integrity.