Russia will intensify Ukraine destabilization closer to the fall, Avakov says

Russia will intensify its efforts to destabilize the
situation in Ukraine closer to the fall, being currently distracted by the
presidential elections and World Cup preparations, Interior Minister Arsen
Avakov said in a March 13 statement. “I don’t think this will be a full-scale
advance on the frontlines since that would inflict such serious casualties that
even the Putin regime couldn’t withstand them,” he said. “Therefore, I think
they will strengthen the hybrid front against the background of the election campaign
in Ukraine.”

Zenon Zawada: We agree
with Avakov’s assessment that Russia will intensify its destabilization
campaign in the fall, simultaneously with the intensification of the election
campaign in Ukraine. An opportune moment to foment chaos in Ukraine – and to
promote pro-Russian narratives – will be the March presidential elections, for
which campaigning is certain to intensify in September. Russian-oriented
candidates are certain to float provocative sound bites about how the quality
of life has deteriorated and promote the narrative that peace with Russia will
improve their living standard.

These candidates will be propped up by media that
is sympathetic to the Kremlin, which will use the elections to make compromise
with Russia more acceptable among the Ukrainian public. This will play to the
Kremlin’s mid-term strategy of using elections to gradually bring Ukraine back
into its sphere of influence. And not only – Russia is also influencing
elections to make European governments more favorable.