Russian-backed attacks in Donbas reach highest in six months

The leadership of the self-declared Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics is doing everything it can to destabilize the conditions at the separation line to pressure the Ukrainian government and undermine the Minsk accords, reported on Aug. 15 Borys Kremenetskiy, the director of the Ukrainian side of the Cease-Fire Monitoring and Coordination Center. “The situation along the separation line in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions remains complicated,” he said. “It becomes more exacerbated as pro-Russian fighters increase daily the use of rapid-fire rocket systems, long-barreled artillery and mortar fire,” he said.

The most shootings in the last six months, or 175, occurred in the 24 hours leading up to noon Aug. 15, reported that day Andriy Lysenko, a spokesman for the anti-terrorist operation (ATO). “Thanks to the skillful arming of defensive lines, as well as the experience and fighting skills of our soldiers, significant losses among ATO forces weren’t allowed,” he said, citing no casualties and only two injured soldiers.

At the same time, numerous incidents of war crimes were reported this weekend, particularly the targeting of civilians. Attacks targeting residential buildings in the town of Sartana, where a mother and daughter were injured, reported the 0629.com.ua news site of Mariupol. By Aug. 17, the news site confirmed two civilian casualties from the attacks on the town and up to six injured, including those with damaged limbs.

Russian-backed terrorists recently transported 11 additional Grad rapid-fire rocket systems to Donetsk, the OSCE reported in its Aug. 14 report. They used heavy artillery to attack the Azov Sea coastline village of Shyrokyne on Aug. 15, reported the 0629.com.ua news site that day. Residential buildings were destroyed and civilians injured in attacks that day on the village of Andriyivtsi near the strategic port city of Mariupol, the news site reported, also citing mortar attacks on other villages in the Mariupol district.

Polish President Andzrej Duda proposed to Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko a new format of peace talks – involving the Polish government – to resolve the war in Donbas, he said in an interview with Polish radio broadcast on Aug. 15. The proposal includes involving Ukraine’s neighbors and the strongest European nations too, he said, in a possible reference to Great Britain. The Polish and Ukrainian sides are preparing for a meeting, he said.

Zenon Zawada: The Ukrainian government said the heightened attacks are related to the upcoming Independence Day holiday on Aug. 24, which is possible. However, in our view, it’s just as plausible that they could be aimed at directly undermining the talks in September to launch the Ukraine-EU Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area. Although the free trade area is not a part of the Minsk accords, that wouldn’t stop the Russian leadership from using the war to undermine the trade agreement, on which the Europeans themselves continue to admit disagreement with Moscow on a majority of its points.

Indeed we expect the Russian government to use any means necessary to undermine the agreement’s launch, scheduled for Jan. 1. Among its instruments will be the use of terror against civilians, as demonstrated in this weekend’s attacks. Meanwhile, we don’t see Poland being able to influence Moscow on the diplomacy front, though Great Britain could certainly be more influential, given the extensive economic ties between the two countries.