Russian-backed forces continue to violate cease-fire

Russian-backed separatists fired on Ukrainian military positions 17 times between 20:00 March 18 and 7:00 March 19, reported Andriy Lysenko, a spokesman for the anti-terrorist operation (ATO). On March 18, fighters with the Luhansk People’s Republic advanced into territory controlled by the Ukrainian army and took over a roadblock near the town of Stanytsia Luhanska, aiming chaotic rifle fire at Ukrainian soldiers, the ATO reported. One Ukrainian soldier was killed in combat and five injured in the 24 hours leading up to noon March 18, Lysenko reported. The Russian-backed separatists are actively spreading warnings of an offensive on the strategic port city of Mariupol and surrounding towns and are most active in this area, he said.

The night of March 16, 40 railcars transported two military units with armored hardware to the railway hub of Debaltseve, reported the Donetsk State Oblast Administration on March 18. On a daily basis, the fighters of the Donetsk People’s Republic unload at least 10 railcars of weapons and tanks of diesel and gasoline in the Donetsk region city of Ilovaysk, the adminstration said.

Heavy artillery is still being used by Russian-backed separatists in the vicinity of the Donetsk airport in violation of the cease-fire, according to the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission in its March 16 report, as reported by the zn.ua news site. The cease-fire was also being violated in the town of Shyrokyno, 23 km east of Mariupol, the OSCE reported. Mariupol is the strategic port city on the Azov Sea that could be targeted for capture by Russian-backed forces.

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) released more video evidence on March 18 that soldiers serving in the Russian Armed Forces have engaged in combat in the warfare in Ukraine’s Donbas region. The video features such admissions from captured Russian soldiers, which were recorded by Ukrainian fighters in August, confirming that they were involved from the fighting in its early months. Furthermore, the SBU has accumulated evidence of the involvement of at least 46 Russian citizens who organized, financed and participated in the armed gangs of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics.

The Russian government is providing funds to pay mercenaries and local fighters in Donbas, an anonymous Kyrgyz mercenary told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty in an interview published March 18. Contracts were offered in November to join “the people’s militia” for USD 400 a month and USD 500 for officers, he said. Russia is providing the financing for all the soldiers’ needs, he said. Yet wages stopped being paid once fighters backed away from fighting, he said, and were renewed after the capture of Debaltseve.

The Russian Armed Forces are currently most active in the Donbas war, the Kyrgyz mercenary said. “Now the regular Russian army is more active there,” he said. “Miners are barely left and volunteers are very few. We are being substituted by regular armies. These are restraining forces that will defend positions in any conditions.”

Zenon Zawada: All this looks like the calm before the storm. The evidence points to the Russian-backed separatists preparing for a new offensive. When the time comes, they’ll find the necessary pretext to justify the attack. Very few observers can predict just when this will happen, including us. Yuriy Lutsenko, a close ally to the Ukrainian president, said this week the April-May period is possible.