Russian invasion would spawn mass resistance in Ukraine

A poll released by Kyiv International Institute of Sociology
on Dec. 17 showed that over half Ukraine’s population would engage in some sort
of defensive action if Russia invades. While 18% of respondents said they would
do nothing, 33% of Ukrainians said they would engage in armed resistance
against the aggressor and 22% would engage in protests and acts of civil
disobedience. Another 10% said they would move abroad and 15% would move to a
safer region within Ukraine.

The poll showed regional variations in answers, with
61% of respondents in western Ukraine indicating that they would resist, versus
37% of those in the east of government-controlled Ukraine. In central Ukraine,
52% of respondents said they would resist, and in the south, 43% would engage
in resisting.

James Hydzik: The poll
confirms a statement made regularly by Ukrainian officials, namely, that an
invasion would be met by an openly hostile populace and an active resistance.
The drag on Russia’s economy, government, and military will be immense. Our
assumption is still that an all-out invasion is still not likely. However, a
formal Russian military advance into the parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts
not controlled by the government could occur. If the reaction is not robust
enough, this would be followed by piecemeal incursions in the hope to
destabilize the government in Kyiv and bring it to its knees.