Russian-oriented forces still deciding 2019 elections strategy, reports says

The leaders of Ukraine’s Russian-oriented forces are
currently engaged in intense discussions on how to approach the 2019 elections
in Ukraine, reported the pravda.com.ua news site on Sept. 26, confirming much
of the information in last week’s report on the lb.ua news site. They are
considering uniting under a single party, the report said. Major differences
still remain among three major political forces: the Rinat Akhmetov group,
those aligned with Putin confidante Viktor Medvedchuk and those aligned with
the natural gas trading group of Yuriy Boyko.

These groups have yet to agree on a presidential
candidate and might not nominate one at all, the report said, citing
high-placed anonymous sources. Instead, they are largely focused on winning a
parliamentary majority. The Akhmetov group wants to nominate former mining
executive Oleksandr Vilkul as their presidential candidate, while the
Opposition Bloc has been promoting its faction head, Boyko. Akhmetov is also
considering forming his own party separate from Boyko and Medvedchuk, a
proposal that has been supported by President Poroshenko.

Zenon Zawada: A Sept. 26
poll indicated that pro-Western parties would earn 64% of votes, compared to
19% for Russian-oriented parties (according to the reputable Kyiv International
Institute for Sociology). However, the political landscape will change
dramatically by the time the parliamentary elections are held in October 2019.
We have said for many months that the Russian-oriented forces will form the
parliamentary opposition, at minimum. We believe their combined result will be
stronger than 20%.

If they can’t form a majority as a direct result of
the elections, the Russian-oriented forces will attempt to do it afterwards,
particularly if the president keeps the current mixed election system, in which
half of MPs are determined by single-mandate districts and the other half are
determined by proportional voting. The Russian-oriented candidates may perform
well in the single mandate districts.