Russians should prepare for long period of sanctions, Medvedev says

The Russian public should brace for withstanding economic and travel sanctions imposed by Western governments for a long, undetermined period of time, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said in an interview with state television broadcast on Feb. 28. He pointed to ongoing efforts in the U.S. Congress to codify the sanctions – imposed as executive orders by former President Obama – into American law, similar to the Jackson-Vanik Amendment imposed against the Soviet Union in 1974. “As the experience of the last two years has shown, we can develop – and develop well – under conditions of the sanctions,” he said.

Zenon Zawada: The Russian government’s preparation for a long, undetermined period of sanctions raises two questions: whether the Russian economy can withstand several more years of sanctions, and whether the Russian elite have the patience to do so. With these sanctions, Western governments were counting on either the Russian economy, or the Russian elites, to eventually capitulate, whichever came first.      

We are confident that Russian President Putin won’t allow the Russian economy to collapse and will resort to extreme measures to prevent that, including expanding the warfare. As for the Russian elites, there is no evidence that a group Western liberals exists among the elite, let alone being capable of taking charge of the government without fierce opposition from Putinists.

In light of this, we expect the Russian government to extend its mild form of military aggression in the Donbas region in the coming months, with a frozen conflict in Donbas as the most promising outcome. The best chance to mend relations is some kind of diplomatic breakthrough in which the West drops its pretenses to the illegal annexation of the Crimean peninsula, without legal recognition. Yet even then, the risk remains of Putin being further emboldened in his goal of undermining Ukraine’s Western integration.