Saakashvili arrested by Security Service of Ukraine

Mikheil Saakashvili, among the leaders of the tent
city protest launched outside of Ukrainian parliament in mid-October, was
arrested by the Security Service of Ukraine the morning of Dec. 5. He was named
a suspect in supporting members of criminal organizations and concealing their
criminal activity. A lawyer who was present for the arrest said Saakashvili was
informed that he was named a suspect in supporting the overthrow of the state
regime, the pravda.com.ua news site said. Saakashvili was arrested after SBU
officers broke into his apartment located in central Kyiv.

Ukrainian President Poroshenko has already arranged
for his extradition to Georgia, where he faces criminal charges, Saakashvili
told protestors on Dec. 3. It will occur next week based on false criminal
charges, he said, adding that he will reject any plea deal to extradite him to
a European country. “When a ruling was reached in Georgia – and now they want
to blackmail me with my deportation to Georgia based on this ruling – I said
that I will go to Georgia,” he said, as reported by the pravda.com.ua news
site. “Let my supporters in Georgia prepare for my arrival.”

Zenon Zawada: These
events should dispel the conspiracy theory that Saakashvili is controlled
opposition for the Poroshenko administration. Instead our view has been since
he burst across the Polish-Ukrainian border in September that Saakashvili has
the tacit support of the U.S. government
for his protest activity (among other possible backers). We believe he has been
a political instrument for the U.S. intelligence services to pressure the
Poroshenko administration into fulfilling the demands of Western institutions.
We believe it’s no coincidence that his arrest comes as the U.S. has
intensified its pressure on the Poroshenko administration for undermining the
activity of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau.

Poroshenko’s worst nightmare is a repeat of the
maidan, in which tens of thousands gather to demand Saakashvili’s release just
as they had for former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. So we are confident
that Saakashvili will be convicted and extradited to Georgia in quick time,
just as he had himself foreseen. It’s not clear yet whether this will lead to
intensified protests, or whether this will serve to cut off their momentum.
However, we believe the U.S. government will be highly dissatisfied with his
extradition. If that doesn’t happen promptly, his incarceration could escalate
the protest movement.