Shock polls: Comedian Zelenskiy leads presidential race

Two credible polls conducted last month and released on
Jan. 31 confirmed that sketch comedian and movie actor Volodymyr Zelenskiy is
now the favorite to win Ukraine’s presidential elections. Among decided voters,
Zelenskiy has 23.0% support, compared to 16.4% for President Petro Poroshenko
and 15.7% for Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, according to a poll conducted
among 11,000 respondents between January 16 and 29 by the Kyiv International
Institute of Sociology, the Razumkov Center and the Socis Center for Social and
Market Research.

Zelenskiy’s lead was confirmed by a second poll
released the same day. Among decided voters, Zelenskiy has 19.0% support,
compared to 18.2% for Tymoshenko and 15.1% for Poroshenko, according to the
Rating Sociological Group, which conducted its survey among 6,000 respondents
between January 16 and 24. About 14.4% remain undecided, compared to 20.9% in
Rating’s December poll. Both polls indicated that more voters now believe
Zelenskiy has a legitimate chance to become president, or at least 10%
(compared to about 20% for Tymoshenko).

Zenon Zawada: The
candidacy of comedian Zelenskiy is no longer a joke. His January surge in the
polls comes as a shock to Ukraine’s establishment, turning the entire election
landscape upside down. We were expecting his ratings to fallonce he was forced to campaign and discuss political issues (exposing his
unfamiliarity), but the very opposite has happened. He has said very little and
has only gained support. Even now, he has yet to propose any coherent political
platform, aside from a few feel-good phrases (“protecting human life as the
main goal”).

The January polls indicate that he is getting the
major portion of undecided voters, who see nothing positive in the
establishment candidates. It appears that many Ukrainians were waiting for
Zelenskiy to officially declare his candidacy – which he did on national
television on New Year’s Eve – before voicing their support. It also appears
that Ukrainians are so dissatisfied with their elites that they’re willing to
trust an actor with no political experience, who merely plays the role of a
noble, responsible president. It would be valuable if the polls asked
respondents whether they understand that Vasyl Holoborodko (played by
Zelenskiy) is a fictional character. The third part of his television series is
scheduled to be launched in March, ahead of the vote scheduled for March 31.

Zelenskiy’s candidacy creates enormous destabilization
risks for the country. We had the view that Poroshenko would have been able to
“massage” the election result to win given that Tymoshenko was his only main
rival. He won’t be able to do that so easily with two competitors who have
enough support between them to challenge vote manipulations and organize mass
protests. The Kremlin will also be looking for opportunities to take advantage
of elections-related chaos. These tensions are further heightened by Poroshenko
being anathema to either Tymoshenko (his long-time enemy) or Zelenskiy (backed
by rival oligarch Igor Kolomoisky) becoming president.

These polls also indicate that the president’s
campaign to create the canonical Orthodox Church of Ukraine has failed to
impress voters. Meanwhile, Tymoshenko hasn’t convinced the public that she’ll
be any different than the standard Ukrainian corrupt politicians. We said
confidently that the second-round runoff would be between Poroshenko and
Tymoshenko, but after these polls, it’s impossible
to predict the second-round candidates with any certainty anymore. This is now
a close race between three competitive candidates.