Support for Zelenskiy presidential candidacy solidifying

Electoral support for comedian Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s
presidential candidacy is growing, according to the latest poll results
released on Feb. 14. Among decided voters, Zelenskiy has 26.9% support,
compared to 17.7% for President Poroshenko and 15.8% for Yulia Tymoshenko,
according to the poll conducted between Jan. 31 and Feb. 10 of 2,007
respondents by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.  Zelenskiy
would earn 39.6% of votes in the second-round runoff, compared to 18.1% for
Poroshenko (a 21.5% gap), according to the poll. Tymoshenko would earn 27.0%,
compared to 18.9% for Poroshenko (an 8.1% gap).

Zelenskiy is a 41-year-old film and television
producer and sketch comedian highly popular in Ukraine and Russia. He starred
in two seasons of a “Servant of the People” television series in which he plays
the role of an honest history teacher frustrated with government unexpectedly
thrust into the corrupt world of Ukrainian politics as president. Zelenskiy
himself is now living the real-life drama that he portrayed on television,
becoming the favorite to become Ukraine’s next president, according to recent
polls.

Zelenskiy has business ties to billionaire oligarch
Igor Kolomoisky, who owns the 1+1 television network that has broadcast the
People’s Servant television series (with the third installment planned for
March, ahead of election day). Members of Kolomoisky’s business entourage have
also formed companies with Zelenskiy that produced and distributed his films.
Ukrainian President Poroshenko made Kolomoisky the target of his
deoligarchization campaign, with the billionaire now widely believed to be
seeking revenge in backing numerous presidential candidates, including
Tymoshenko and Zelenskiy.

Zenon Zawada: There’s a
notion that Poroshenko would rather see Zelenskiy as his runoff opponent than
Tymoshenko, but we don’t share that view. Zelenskiy’s second-round support
against Poroshenko is even better than Tymoshenko’s. With such a large gap in
polls, there’s no political technology that Poroshenko can use to claim that he
was legitimately re-elected. No vote manipulations can cover that gap, nor the
claim that Poroshenko supporters are ashamed to admit so for pollsters.

Not only does Zelenskiy have more support, but his
base electorate – young people of all walks of life – have a better potential
to mobilize mass protests if they conclude the results have been falsified.
Given that Poroshenko will go to extremes to surrender the presidency to
Zelenskiy – who has loyalty to Poroshenko’s intense business rival Kolomoisky –
we believe the president must be considering his options in avoiding the
runoff.